Harrison Lavelle
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Understanding the 2024 Early Vote
In the run-up to the 2020 Presidential Election, Donald Trump repeatedly questioned the security of early voting (particularly mail-in voting) and encouraged Republicans to vote in-person or on election day. His base, distrustful of state boards of election and concerned about interference, largely followed suit. At the same time, Democrats… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris’ odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. Readers may note that this marks the fourth straight week of decline from her peak of 62% when the model launched, which happened fresh off a debate that Harris was widely seen as having… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
In a cycle characterized recently by immense upheaval, stability is perhaps the last thing that would come to mind regarding the 2024 elections. Yet for perhaps the first time in months, that is exactly what would characterize our forecasts right now. Coalitions are largely set (in fact, FiveThirtyEight’s crosstab aggregates… Read More
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Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
Between now and election day, we’ll be doing a series of weekly updates on the state of the race in the House, Senate, and Presidency. Our goal is to keep you informed on what our models say on a weekly basis about the evolving state of the race as the… Read More
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
Earlier this year, we introduced our quantitative Senate model. At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats; Democrats had the advantage in 48 states, with Ohio filling out the tossup category. Since then, the topline has remained the same — although… Read More
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We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent… Read More
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the… Read More