Ethan Chen
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The Pendulum Effect
In 2025, two governors are retiring — Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey, and their seats are up for grabs. Both Virginia and New Jersey are similarly blue: Kamala Harris won them both by 6. Yet, at the time of writing, Virginia’s race looks… Read More
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Are GOP-Leaning Pollsters Biasing The Averages? (No.)
One question we keep getting is whether Republican-leaning polls are biasing our poll averages. The criticism goes as such: since the averages are only as good as the data that goes into it, a flood of polls from GOP-leaning pollsters would meaningfully bias the polling outlook rightward. This is what… Read More
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What’s In A Rating?
Last month, the Cook Political Report published an article with some eye-opening statistics: over their 38-year history, more than 95% of races they called as “leaning” toward a party went to said party. By contrast, over 97% of races they called as “likely” to go to a party resolved as… Read More
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Running Scared: How A Safe Seat Campaign Saved A Democratic Machine
In 2022, the second red tsunami in two years crashed onto the South Jersey shores. In the region’s light-red congressional district, Rep. Van Drew (R, NJ-02) was reelected by a whopping 19% margin. And in county after county, the once-vaunted South Jersey Democratic machine was absolutely obliterated, losing every major… Read More