Armin Thomas
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Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of… Read More
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America and the Affirmative Action Debate
Last month, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, holding that race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions violate both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision, which also covered… Read More
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The Milligan Decision: What Does It Mean for Alabama Redistricting?
On June 8th, the Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, finding that Alabama’s current congressional map likely violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision paves the way for a second majority-black district in the state. More importantly, the Court held that the VRA… Read More
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New York City’s Changing Coalitions
New York City is the most diverse city in the world and its electoral coalitions follow these sectional lines. Because voters with similar identities often share political preferences, understanding demographic change helps explain the coalition changes in New York City across forty years: between the 1984 and 2020 presidential elections.… Read More
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Our Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings
With the Republican presidential primary field all but set and the election less than 18 months away, Split Ticket now debuts its initial 2024 presidential ratings. Historically, preference volatility has hindered projection-making from this point in time, over a year out from either party convention. However, with increased ideological entrenchment,… Read More
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Our Initial 2024 Senate Ratings
The upcoming Senate map has been on “borrowed time” for Democrats for almost two decades, but a mix of exceptional candidate quality and excellent environments have kept them afloat for quite some time. In 2006, Democrats defeated six of the so-called “Class I” Republicans, flipping the Senate in a wave… Read More
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A Generational Cliff
Split Ticket has devoted significant coverage to the partisanship of young voters. Whether through analyzing individual-level data in voter files or by aggregating and examining exit poll estimates from the last four decades, the story we find remains consistent: young voters are extremely Democratic, and more importantly, ahistorically so. This… Read More
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How Successful are House Challengers in Competitive Rematches?
Candidates who lose close House races are often motivated to run again. When they do, their high name recognition, strong fundraising connections, and tested campaign infrastructures tend to give them an advantage over primary opponents. Support from national party committees like the NRCC and DCCC can also be decisive in… Read More
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Analyzing Republican Overperformance in Elections for State Treasurer and Controller
National polling generally suggests that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to handling fiscal policy. In the lead-up to the 2022 midterms, pre-election polling from ABC News showed the GOP enjoying a 12-point advantage on the economy, compared to a 12-point deficit on the issue of abortion.… Read More