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Another State Supreme Court Battle Brews In Wisconsin
Introduction Few states are as politically divided as Wisconsin, which voted for former President Trump in 2016 by a mere 23,000 votes, and for President Biden in 2020 by an even narrower 20-thousand vote margin. Federally, Wisconsin is one of just a handful of states that elected a bipartisan senate duo to Washington. In the…
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Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: New Jersey
In addition to covering the gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, we at Split Ticket will be rating state legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia. Today’s analysis offers an early look at the key primary and general election contests for the Assembly and Senate in the Garden State. Both chambers of Virginia’s legislature…
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How Has The US Senate Managed To Stay Competitive?
The 2024 Senate map is conventionally challenging for Democrats. Republicans need just two seats to flip the chamber, while Democrats must defend 23. Eight of the states that they are defending were more Republican than the nation in 2020 and three (Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio) backed President Trump twice while voting more than ten…
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Beshear Today, Gone Tomorrow? Kentucky Governor’s Race is a Tossup.
The 2022 midterms are barely behind us and attention of political media has already turned to 2024. However, before a Republican presidential hopeful so much as whiffs their first steak-on-a-stick at the Iowa State Fair, one overlooked contest may have a lot more to tell us about the nation’s political climate. While 2021 had its…
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World Report: Berlin’s Repeat State Elections
Introduction Last month Split Ticket examined recent electoral and political developments in Brazil and Peru, bringing back World Report for the 2023 cycle. This edition of the series will review the results of the January presidential runoff in the Czech Republic while previewing today’s redo state elections in Berlin. Czech Republic – January 27th and…
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Which Key Race Outcomes Might Libertarians Have Changed?
Introduction Much important American electoral discourse revolves around spoiler candidates. In other words, minor contenders (typically representing third parties) who win just enough votes to be accused of preventing major-party candidates from securing majorities in tight races. The use of first-past-the-post voting in most U.S. states makes it easier for observers to blame “spoilers” because…
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Election Review: New Jersey’s 7th district
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Election Review, Split Ticket’s new ex post facto House analysis series. Following last week’s Ohio breakdown, today’s installment takes us east to New Jersey. We visualized the 7th district House election results using a number of maps and data tables, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of…
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Did Refusing The COVID-19 Vaccine Cost The GOP Any Elections?
Vaccination has historically not been something that diverges along partisan lines in the United States. Until recently, both parties showed roughly equal rates of vaccine enthusiasm and skepticism alike, and Donald Trump’s administration was actually the one that launched Operation Warp Speed, which led to the rapid development of the extremely effective mRNA vaccines that…
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Election Review: Ohio
Introduction With 2022 in the rearview mirror, we at Split Ticket decided to start a new series called Election Review devoted to analyzing significant House races on a state by state basis. In addition to our previous Against The Trend publications, which focused on crossover voting driven by down-ballot lag, Election Review will utilize our…
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Looking Back at Utah’s 2022 Senate Race
One of the most surprising results of the 2022 midterms was the relatively close Utah Senate race. The ruby-red state posted a 10.4-point win for incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee over conservative independent Evan McMullin — a remarkable underperformance by Lee. By comparison, the comparatively more competitive state of Florida voted for Sen. Marco Rubio,…
