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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November 2021. One key problem for […]
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Against The Trend: South Texas
INTRODUCTION With the strenuous 2022 House campaign over at last, it’s time to dive into the electoral analysis phase. Our first new article series, Against The Trend, will regionally address three defining characteristics of the recent House elections: candidate quality still matters, crossover voting can be decisive, and trends don’t always carry over consistently between […]
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A Final Note
With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ […]
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Our Final Senate Ratings
For the longest time, one of the biggest incongruities about this cycle was the divergence between national polling, which showed a close national environment, and the state polling, which showed a Democratic blowout in the battlegrounds. Our initial temptation was to explain this away through candidate quality, given that in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, […]
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Our Final Governor’s Ratings
The board is set. There are only a few days left before Election Day, and thus Split Ticket has now made final forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. The map is immediately below, followed by an explanation of each race. Overall, the result is a modestly good night for the GOP: This map incorporates 9 rating […]
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A Look At Two House “Sleepers”
INTRODUCTION On Monday, Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber. Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated. A winner will be picked in each of those undecided races this […]
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A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races
This year, the spending in two Senate campaigns–Arizona and Ohio–represent a departure from the conventional architecture of statewide campaigns. Republican candidates in these races have all but abandoned traditional fundraising avenues for a deluge of outside funding dollars unleashed by the notorious Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 12 years ago. Since that decision, budgets […]
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World Report: Israeli Elections
INTRODUCTION Israel is experiencing its fifth election cycle in three and a half years. The contest is once again centered around the character of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for bribery and breach of trust charges. He will try to gain a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, after […]
