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Democratic Retirements: Who's Left?
Introduction Of the thirty Representatives not seeking reelection next year, 19 are Democrats. Eight of those 19 are running for higher office, but the rest of them are hopping on the retirement train for more traditional reasons. With Democrats widely expected to lose control of the House next year, most retirees are probably trying to…
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Reassessing 2020 Senate Races With Data-Driven Assessments Of Candidate Quality
When the pre-election discourse around candidate quality pops up, my mind always goes to the famous Arthur Conan Doyle saying of how “it’s easy to be wise after the event”. It sums it up more accurately than any of us would care to admit — pre-election polling numbers, vibes, and anecdotal stories often color our…
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The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden
The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden Introduction Crossover seats are districts that elect a Congressperson of a different party than their Presidential preference. Split-ticket voting is the stimulant behind these outcomes, so it makes sense that the increasing dominance of straight-ticket voting on the American political scene has reduced the number of districts…
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Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts
Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts The Midwest is one of the most fascinating regions of the United States for any election analyst to study. Largely white and working class, it is a hardened American echelon that seems to have undergone more loss and struggle than success and revitalization. For…
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An Old Coalition Mix-up in Illinois
The Opening The 1998 gubernatorial race in the state of Illinois was a contest unlike any other the state, or the nation, has seen recently. Featuring incumbent Secretary of State George Ryan (REP), and 19th district Rep. Glenn Poshard (DEM), the policies, campaigning styles, and coalitions of the race are quite fascinating, and represent a…
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The Thanksgiving Special: Retirement Musings (Part 1)
Part 1 – How are the latest replacement primaries shaping up? Most of these primaries are still in limbo because of redistricting, so we’ll largely be focusing on the candidates. Our reporting will be most salient in seats with solidified boundaries. This part of the series will focus on potential successors in open seats.…
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The Third Split: An altered look at the 2020 House races
Preface Each Wednesday we’ll be releasing hypothetical newsletters making use of deeper analysis. We’ve got some pretty amazing model-based pieces planned for the next few weeks, but today we’ll be starting gingerly with a simple what if question: what would the 2020 House Elections have looked like under an R+7 environment. Methods Disclaimer This…
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The First Split (11/22)
Welcome to the first split! Split Ticket will be sending out three different newsletters each week to keep up with our commitment to covering a wide variety of content. Each will have a specific theme, with subject matter alternating by the week. Here’s the plan: Mondays (Campaign news and general updates) Wednesday (A deep-dive analytical…
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Leahy out, Welch in
A Senatorial Titan Vermont’s elder statesman Patrick Leahy announced his retirement last week. The Democratic Senator was first elected in 1974 in the wake of Watergate. Leahy is the last Senate ‘Watergate Baby’. (The term only applies to Democrats, so Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley is excluded even though he won his House seat in 1974) Leahy is the only…
