Category: Governor 2022
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Against The Trend: New York
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Against The Trend, Split Ticket’s new regional electoral analysis series. Today’s publication will examine the 2022 House election results in New York through the lens of the Empire State’s gubernatorial race. Just like in South Texas, which we covered in our previous installment, the data used for this […]
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Struggling to Attract Single Women? So are Republicans
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the narrative of the 2022 midterms had already cemented: Republicans’ celebration of a promised majority had turned to dejection and finger-pointing. There will be no shortage of post-hoc analysis for this “asterisk” election, but with more data available, there’s one voting block bucking the trend that should be […]
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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November 2021. One key problem for […]
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A Final Note
With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ […]
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Our Final Governor’s Ratings
The board is set. There are only a few days left before Election Day, and thus Split Ticket has now made final forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. The map is immediately below, followed by an explanation of each race. Overall, the result is a modestly good night for the GOP: This map incorporates 9 rating […]
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Empire State Shocker
Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a heavily blue state, is not […]
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Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On
Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic opponent, and suffers from closer-than-expected […]
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MD-Gov: An Impossible Lift for Republicans
Of the four Republican gubernatorial pickups in the 2014 cycle, Maryland’s was arguably the biggest upset. Eight years later, the Republican party that once pulled off two-term Governor Larry Hogan’s victory is virtually unrecognizable. In such a firmly Democratic state, Gov. Hogan’s popularity has nearly hinged on his perception as a moderate. It certainly helped […]
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What’s Happening in South Dakota?
South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South Dakota’s heavily white and rural […]
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Could Michigan Democrats Break a 40 Year Losing Streak?
For a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections, Michigan has been relatively hostile to Democrats at the state legislative level. Thanks to a combination of favorable maps, political climates, organizational strength, and geography, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1982, and Democrats once […]