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  • What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024?

    What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024?

    Now more than ever, political observers seem to be digging into polls’ crosstabs, oftentimes reacting with incredulity at some of the results among certain demographic subgroups. Sometimes they’ll even point to these seemingly impossible subgroup margins (e.g., “There’s just no way Trump is leading Biden among white college graduates!”) as a reason to disregard the… Read more

  • What Happened In Mississippi?

    On a night of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in the 2023 elections, Brandon Presley’s 3.2% loss in Mississippi’s gubernatorial election stands out. Facing an incumbent governor in a Trump +17 state in the Deep South, most had already written off the Presley campaign. Then, a catastrophic October Democratic underperformance in demographically-similar Louisiana made Presley’s chances… Read more

  • The Flip Side to the Dobbs Effect

    Media coverage of elections has presented theories of how abortion-focused messaging has allowed Democrats to beat expectations. From June 2022 and beyond, this has largely been true — with the voters of states such as Ohio and Michigan recently electing to protect abortion rights in their states. Despite the position’s general popularity, there are communities… Read more

  • What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?

    It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999.  Their success wasn’t limited to gubernatorial races. In Virginia, Democrats… Read more

  • Final Gubernatorial Updates

    With election day approaching, two gubernatorial elections remain to be held before the 2024 general election. Earlier this month in Louisiana, State Attorney General Jeff Landry won the jungle primary with a bare majority of votes, avoiding a November runoff he almost certainly would have won. This establishes the first Louisiana GOP trifecta with a… Read more

  • Our November 2023 State Legislative and Referendum Elections Preview

    Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections may take up most of the attention, but they’re not the only important contests taking place this week. In Ohio, voters will decide two high-profile state initiatives. The first, Issue 1, would establish a state constitutional right to free reproductive decision making while prohibiting abortion restrictions prior to fetal viability. The second,… Read more

  • Running Scared: How A Safe Seat Campaign Saved A Democratic Machine

    In 2022, the second red tsunami in two years crashed onto the South Jersey shores. In the region’s light-red congressional district, Rep. Van Drew (R, NJ-02) was reelected by a whopping 19% margin. And in county after county, the once-vaunted South Jersey Democratic machine was absolutely obliterated, losing every major competitive race along the bay.… Read more

  • New Jersey Temperature Check: 10/21

    Last week, we adjusted our legislative ratings in Virginia to reflect the current political environment. With the latest fundraising reports available, we’re now doing the same for New Jersey’s State Senate and Assembly. While a lot has changed since our first update in February, Democrats ultimately remain comfortable favorites to retain both chambers. Throughout this… Read more

  • Virginia Temperature Check: 10/12

    Today we’re updating our legislative forecast in Virginia for the first time since February. The ratings changes reflect the assumption that the political environment is at least more Democratic than it was last year. Our recent special elections analysis goes into the subject in more detail. In short, we’re expecting Democrats to flip Virginia’s House… Read more

  • Can Kyrsten Sinema Win in Arizona?

    Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s transition from a relatively predictable moderate Democrat to a mercurial independent has shaken up the upcoming Senate election in her home state. Her party switch topped off her breaks with party orthodoxy on key agenda items, which has enraged rank-and-file Democrats in Arizona and led to mainstream liberal Rep. Ruben Gallego… Read more

  • Do Special Elections Mean Anything?

    One of the biggest open questions is why recent Democratic special election performances continue to paint a completely different electoral picture than what current polling suggests. Polls continue to show an effectively tied race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and Biden’s approval remains stuck in the low 40s. On the other hand, special elections… Read more

  • House Temperature Check: 9/18

    Six months have passed since we released our 2024 House ratings, following the lackluster showing by Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Since then, the national environment seems to have improved for Democrats and critical mid-decade redistricting is on the horizon in a number of important states. In light of these developments, we’re modifying our… Read more

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