Search Results for “generic ballot”

Estimating 2022’s Generic Ballot

INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 2022 cycle, one political truism benefited Republicans above all else: the out party had gained ground in all but three midterms since 1862. During that time frame, the House of Representatives had changed hands in 13 such cycles, with the presidential party often suffering double-digit losses. The GOP did…
A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator

It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point to a remotely competitive race…
2022 Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator

Methodology Note: This is not our forecast; those use many more things than a simple generic ballot average. This is also not a model. This is simply a tool that we have built to better inform readers and election watchers in a transparent and open manner about what nonpartisan pollsters say the electorate will be…
Using Fundamentals To Create An Adjusted Senate Forecast

By this point in the cycle, the conventional wisdom is clear: “polling favors the Democrats, especially in statewide races, because of candidate quality. But fundamentals favor the Republicans“. This is a notion further exacerbated by the fact that polling badly missed by overestimating Democrats in the previous election cycle, leaving many with a case of…
Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach

One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump continues to command an unusually…
New York’s 19th: What Does It Mean For November?

INTRODUCTION On Tuesday, New York’s 19th district shocked the political world and forced pundits of all stripes to reconsider some of their long-held assumptions about the political dynamics of the 2022 midterm cycle. Despite being outspent, trailing in his party’s own internal polls, and having to contest a Biden-won swing seat amid an ostensibly-hostile national…
Election Denial Is Really Unpopular

The 2020 election was unique for a variety of reasons. Chief among them, however, was the false contention from the (losing) Republican camp that they had actually won. In the wake of the election, former president Donald Trump propagated a wave of lies regarding the results and refused to back down on them, making them…
NE-01: Implications, or not?

Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested it would be of interest.…
An Early Post-Mortem: Can Democrats Hold The House?

INTRODUCTION For the entire 2022 cycle, mainstream pundits expected Republicans to comfortably flip the House of Representatives. Looking back, it’s hard to blame them for their optimism. The GOP had already enjoyed surprisingly-good House performance in 2020, netting 14 districts and reaching 213 seats – just 5 short of a majority. Conventional wisdom defining out-party…
A Final Note

With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’…