• Our Gubernatorial Ratings: A Rundown

    Introduction Split Ticket is proud to announce our first set of race ratings for the 2022 cycle. This installment covers all 36 of next year’s gubernatorial contests, with a focus on the most competitive contests. Our Senate ratings will debut on Wednesday, followed by a look at some of the most watched House races on… Read More

  • Welcome to America: The Beginning of Blue Virginia

    Ahead of the 2006 election cycle, few doubted the advantage Republicans held in Virginia at the federal level. Democrats had not won the Old Dominion in a Presidential race since 1964, when LBJ romped to victory against conservative Senator Barry Goldwater. The GOP was generally successful in Senate races too. Senior Senator John Warner, a… Read More

  • Op-Ed: Who Will Bell The Cat?

    There once was a colony of mice that was being attacked by a marauding cat. As the cat began to eat more and more and the mice began shrinking in fear, the colony called an emergency meeting to address the situation. All the mice had some ideas on what to do, but nobody could settle… Read More

  • Democratic Retirements: Who's Left?

    Introduction Of the thirty Representatives not seeking reelection next year, 19 are Democrats. Eight of those 19 are running for higher office, but the rest of them are hopping on the retirement train for more traditional reasons. With Democrats widely expected to lose control of the House next year, most retirees are probably trying to… Read More

  • Reassessing 2020 Senate Races With Data-Driven Assessments Of Candidate Quality

    When the pre-election discourse around candidate quality pops up, my mind always goes to the famous Arthur Conan Doyle saying of how “it’s easy to be wise after the event”. It sums it up more accurately than any of us would care to admit — pre-election polling numbers, vibes, and anecdotal stories often color our… Read More

  • The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden

    The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden Introduction Crossover seats are districts that elect a Congressperson of a different party than their Presidential preference. Split-ticket voting is the stimulant behind these outcomes, so it makes sense that the increasing dominance of straight-ticket voting on the American political scene has reduced the number of districts… Read More

  • Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts

    Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts The Midwest is one of the most fascinating regions of the United States for any election analyst to study. Largely white and working class, it is a hardened American echelon that seems to have undergone more loss and struggle than success and revitalization. For… Read More

  • An Old Coalition Mix-up in Illinois

    The Opening The 1998 gubernatorial race in the state of Illinois was a contest unlike any other the state, or the nation, has seen recently. Featuring incumbent Secretary of State George Ryan (REP), and 19th district Rep. Glenn Poshard (DEM), the policies, campaigning styles, and coalitions of the race are quite fascinating, and represent a… Read More

  • The Thanksgiving Special: Retirement Musings (Part 1)

      Part 1 – How are the latest replacement primaries shaping up? Most of these primaries are still in limbo because of redistricting, so we’ll largely be focusing on the candidates. Our reporting will be most salient in seats with solidified boundaries. This part of the series will focus on potential successors in open seats.… Read More