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Introducing Split Ticket’s Congressional Voting Index (CVI)

INTRODUCTION

Split Ticket’s new Congressional Voting Index (CVI) gauges each House district’s partisan lean. In contrast to counterparts like Cook PVI, our CVI uses a unique methodology that makes it more representative of the current electoral climate. This tool will improve our 2024 House ratings by shedding light on how seats may be expected to vote after accounting for candidate-driven effects and the national environment.

BACKGROUND

Our CVI builds off of three previous projects: the 2022 House WAR model, the SHAVE metric, and the Trend Score index. The first tool provides adjusted district partisanships for the last two presidential elections as well as candidate-independent 2022 House results estimates for every seat. The second allows us to predict how uncontested seats might have voted, relative to state-level environments in a given cycle, had they been contested by Republican and Democratic nominees. The last quantifies the direction in which individual House seats are trending and how unrealized shifts impact flippability. A browsable table with per-district CVI scores is available here and at the bottom of this article (best viewed on Desktop).

RESULTS

Our CVI can be found on our website. Each district is placed into one of seven categories based on calculated partisanships. Associated score ranges are defined below.

Observations

There are obviously too many CVI leans to discuss in one article, so we decided to break down important House generalities based on the categories provided below. Holistic analysis allows us to see which party would have an inherent advantage in the House based on our leans alone. Viewing federal partisanship without candidate-driven distortions helps determine how competitive the redistricted House map really is.

If every seat were assigned by its CVI split, Democrats would control 218 to the Republicans’ 217 – an even narrower majority than the one currently held by the GOP. Of the 435 districts, 314 are rated either Firmly D/R, meaning they lean toward either party by at least 15 points and are not considered competitive. 121 seats are classified as Even, Moderately D/R, or Mostly D/R.

Of those districts, the 22 in the Even group form the so-called “competitive core” of the House playing field. With minor exceptions like PA-01, where GOP incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick is formidable, these districts should be the chamber’s most volatile from cycle to cycle. A quick look at our Flip Index shows predictable overlap. 

The Democrats’ 218 to 217 CVI majority also seems to confirm prior Split Ticket research which found that the recently-redistricted House map may have a D+1 House bias, a far cry from the that of the gerrymandered Republican lines pioneered by Project REDMAP in 2012. Our 218th seat, New York’s 19th district, has a D+0.5 partisanship, suggesting the chamber does indeed align with last year’s estimates.

The 19th (Biden +4.6) may not be a cross-section of America, but it is an excellent embodiment of the traditionally-Republican, Democratic-trending swing seats which now sustain the GOP’s narrow 222-213 majority. Republican Marc Molinaro flipped this open district last November after losing an August special election to Democrat Pat Ryan. Whether or not he wins reelection in the median seat with President Joe Biden on the ballot should be an excellent bellwether for overall House control.

As we alluded to above, the threadbare Republican House majority currently relies on a dozen moderate and center-right incumbents representing districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. In other words, ticket splitting evoked by specific candidates, like Molinaro, helped the GOP secure control of a chamber that Democrats would be expected to win with generic candidates under neutral environmental conditions. 

To get an early look at how vulnerable the Republicans’ majority will be to the effects of presidential turnout and polarization in 2024, we tallied the number of crossover seats based on our CVI lean, not 2020 presidential, to divide up the Republican and Democratic conferences into each of the seven classifications defined previously. This allows us to predict, for example, the most vulnerable districts held by both parties based on partisanship alone. Keep in mind that incumbency and candidate effects will be factored into our eventual ratings.

We define a crossover incumbent as a member representing a seat that leans toward the opposite party. There are 21 of these representatives under the CVI Splits, 11 of whom represent “Even” districts. The long-term vulnerabilities of the GOP House majority become quite apparent when one considers that 13 of the 21 total crossover districts (62%) are held by Republican incumbents; seven of them won marginal Biden seats, like NY-19, in 2022, all of which will be high on Democratic target lists next year.

Among those seats rated Advantage D/R and Reach D/R, which sometimes favor the minority party due to candidate quality deltas, House Republicans are stretched even thinner. They have six crossover seats across the two categories compared to the Democrats’ four. Six of these ten members are also freshmen, though Mary Peltola (AK-AL) did win an August special election before securing a full term. 

A final thorn in the Republicans’ side is the experience of their crossover candidates in seats with particularly-hostile partisanships. While incumbents like Mike Garcia (CA-27) and David Valadao (CA-22) have proved their strength in multiple difficult cycles, newer members such as Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04) and Mike Lawler (NY-17) remain untested in presidential years. Democrats like Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and Jared Golden (ME-02), by contrast, have clear records of electoral success in Trump-won seats. 

Assuming the national environment is more Democratic in 2024 than it was in 2022, our numbers suggest that Republicans, particularly those crossover freshmen elected narrowly last fall, will be on the offensive in a TOSSUP House chamber. House bias may favor Democrats slightly (D+0.5), but a 218-217 majority is effectively a dead heat. We consider this a fair median case given higher levels of expected voter turnout and accompanying presidential-year polarization.

While we think it’s possible for Democrats to end up with a larger margin of victory, especially if former President Donald Trump drags down Republicans like Marc Molinaro as the 2024 GOP nominee, there is currently not enough evidence to suggest either party is favored in the chamber. 

Democratic success will depend on recruitment in individual races, shrewd spending decisions, favorable state-level political environments, ineffectual mid-decade redistricting, and the Republicans’ presidential nominee. At the minimum, Democrats are expected to devote more time, money, and interest to seats in which they narrowly came up short last November like AZ-01, AZ-06, MI-10, and CA-41.

Detailed Methodology 

Let’s now break down the methodology underlying our CVI leans. We collected four results variables for each of the nation’s 435 House seats: 2020 presidential, 2022 congressional, 2024 estimated, and 2016 presidential. They received weights of 50%, 25%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. To ensure an even national environment in our calculations, we shifted all WAR model data uniformly based on the cycle.

Weight assignments reduced the effects of recency bias and elastic midterm phenomena like down-ballot lag. We chose to avoid state-level returns (i.e., gubernatorial results) for the sake of consistency and relevance to national dynamics, as the CVI is intended to be a federal election metric. The lack of uniform statewide data also drove us to exclude numbers from 2018.

The 2020 and 2016 district-by-district presidential results are internally-consistent with the other WAR model data and account for differing national environments. 2020’s returns receive significantly more weight than 2016’s in the CVI because they are more recent and, therefore, the better gauge of potential 2024 coalitions in swing districts – even if Democrats lose the White House. 

Hillary Clinton’s 2016 win in Mahoning County (OH), for example, could not be replicated by Joe Biden in 2020 or even Senate nominee Tim Ryan in 2022, suggesting that placing too much emphasis on 2016 could overstate the strength of both parties’ historical coalitions ex post facto. That said, anomalies like Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial race should remind us that trends are not linear. In other words, 2016 numbers are still meaningful enough to be included in our calculations to a minor extent.

The variable receiving the second-most weight after 2020 adjusted presidential lean is 2022 wins-above-replacement (WAR) predicted, which controls for candidate-driven variations in the actual midterm results by calculating how generic Republican and Democratic candidates would have been expected to perform in each House district. 2022 SHAVE estimates filled in the gaps for uncontested seats where WAR findings could not be applied. All values were shifted leftward by 1.6 points to control for the national environment.

We account for candidate quality deltas in our CVI scores because they are designed to accurately quantify each seat’s baseline partisan lean void of effects related to the strengths and weaknesses of specific nominees. Had we, for instance, not controlled for Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 16-point overperformance in OH-09, a Trump-won seat, the district’s calculated partisan lean would have been embarrassingly misrepresentative of political realities.

The final piece of the methodological puzzle comes from our set of Trend & Flip Scores, which can be found here. While last month’s Trend Scores do utilize the actual 2016 and 2020 presidential results, applying the adjusted WAR numbers to the underlying formula does not significantly change any outcomes. We derive our estimated 2024 leans by shifting 2020 toplines based on each district’s Trend Score. By putting slightly more weight on where a seat is going (2024) than where it has been (2016), we believe our CVI scores become more circumspect.

There are, however, a few caveats worth mentioning as we head into the 2023-2024 cycle. Mid-decade redistricting is set to take place in North Carolina and Ohio, with rumors of a Texas redraw also in the mix. A recent court decision additionally struck down South Carolina’s 1st district following a racial discrimination lawsuit, which would force changes to the Palmetto State’s congressional lines should SCOTUS let it stand. Split Ticket’s CVI will be updated as soon as new maps are approved for the upcoming cycle. Revised methodology will be used when necessary.

Per-District CVIs

DISTRICTINCUMBENTRANKPARTISANSHIPCLASSIFICATION
CA-12Barbara Lee1D+80.2Firmly Democratic
MD-04Glenn Ivey2D+80.0Firmly Democratic
PA-03Dwight Evans3D+79.8Firmly Democratic
WA-07Pramila Jayapal4D+76.0Firmly Democratic
CA-11Nancy Pelosi5D+74.1Firmly Democratic
NY-13Adriano Espaillat6D+73.8Firmly Democratic
MA-07Ayanna Pressley7D+72.0Firmly Democratic
CA-37Sydney Kamlager8D+71.8Firmly Democratic
IL-07Danny Davis9D+71.5Firmly Democratic
NY-12Jerry Nadler10D+68.9Firmly Democratic
NY-10Dan Goldman11D+68.6Firmly Democratic
NY-15Ritchie Torres12D+67.1Firmly Democratic
GA-05Nikema Williams13D+65.6Firmly Democratic
CA-34Jimmy Gomez14D+63.0Firmly Democratic
MD-07Kweisi Mfume15D+62.8Firmly Democratic
MN-05Ilhan Omar16D+62.2Firmly Democratic
MD-08Jamie Raskin17D+62.0Firmly Democratic
CO-01Diana DeGette18D+61.9Firmly Democratic
CA-43Maxine Waters19D+61.6Firmly Democratic
NJ-10Donald Payne20D+60.7Firmly Democratic
NY-07Nydia Velázquez21D+60.0Firmly Democratic
NY-05Gregory Meeks22D+59.2Firmly Democratic
GA-13David Scott23D+58.8Firmly Democratic
MO-01Cori Bush24D+57.5Firmly Democratic
OH-11Shontel Brown25D+57.2Firmly Democratic
GA-04Hank Johnson26D+56.0Firmly Democratic
CA-15Kevin Mullin27D+55.2Firmly Democratic
TX-30Jasmine Crockett28D+54.8Firmly Democratic
VA-08Don Beyer29D+54.5Firmly Democratic
NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez30D+53.5Firmly Democratic
CA-08John Garamendi31D+52.8Firmly Democratic
WI-04Gwen Moore32D+52.7Firmly Democratic
TX-09Al Green33D+51.5Firmly Democratic
TX-37Lloyd Doggett34D+51.4Firmly Democratic
CA-16Anna Eshoo35D+51.0Firmly Democratic
NY-08Hakeem Jeffries36D+50.7Firmly Democratic
LA-02Troy Carter37D+50.5Firmly Democratic
MA-05Katherine Clark38D+50.5Firmly Democratic
AZ-03Ruben Gallego39D+50.1Firmly Democratic
CA-29Tony Cárdenas40D+49.7Firmly Democratic
FL-20Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick41D+49.6Firmly Democratic
NY-09Yvette Clark42D+48.8Firmly Democratic
MI-13Shri Thanedar43D+48.7Firmly Democratic
CA-02Jared Huffman44D+48.6Firmly Democratic
MI-12Rashida Tlaib45D+48.3Firmly Democratic
TX-33Marc Veasey46D+48.3Firmly Democratic
CA-44Nanette Barragán47D+47.2Firmly Democratic
TX-18Sheila Jackson Lee48D+46.7Firmly Democratic
OR-03Earl Blumenauer49D+46.6Firmly Democratic
TN-09Steve Cohen50D+46.5Firmly Democratic
FL-24Frederica Wilson51D+46.4Firmly Democratic
CA-17Ro Khanna52D+46.3Firmly Democratic
IL-04Jesús “Chuy” García53D+45.8Firmly Democratic
WA-09Adam Smith54D+44.7Firmly Democratic
CA-14Eric Swalwell55D+44.4Firmly Democratic
CA-30Adam Schiff56D+44.2Firmly Democratic
CA-42Robert Garcia57D+43.8Firmly Democratic
TX-35Greg Casar58D+43.5Firmly Democratic
OH-03Joyce Beatty59D+43.0Firmly Democratic
NJ-08Rob Menendez60D+42.9Firmly Democratic
CA-18Zoe Lofgren61D+42.7Firmly Democratic
CA-36Ted Lieu62D+42.2Firmly Democratic
PA-02Brendan Boyle63D+42.1Firmly Democratic
IL-01Jonathan Jackson64D+41.6Firmly Democratic
WI-02Mark Pocan65D+41.5Firmly Democratic
IN-07André Carson66D+41.0Firmly Democratic
IL-09Jan Schakowsky67D+40.7Firmly Democratic
NY-16Jamaal Bowman68D+40.6Firmly Democratic
IL-03Delia Ramirez69D+40.2Firmly Democratic
CO-02Joe Neguse70D+40.1Firmly Democratic
CA-32Brad Sherman71D+39.7Firmly Democratic
IL-02Robin Kelly72D+39.4Firmly Democratic
VA-11Gerry Connolly73D+39.3Firmly Democratic
IL-05Mike Quigley74D+39.0Firmly Democratic
OR-01Suzanne Bonamici75D+38.3Firmly Democratic
CA-19Jimmy Panetta76D+38.3Firmly Democratic
CA-10Mark DeSaulnier77D+36.7Firmly Democratic
VA-03Bobby Scott78D+36.7Firmly Democratic
MN-04Betty McCollum79D+36.7Firmly Democratic
CA-07Doris Matsui80D+35.7Firmly Democratic
TX-29Sylvia Garcia81D+35.7Firmly Democratic
MD-05Steny Hoyer82D+35.5Firmly Democratic
CA-04Mike Thompson83D+35.5Firmly Democratic
CA-52Juan Vargas84D+35.5Firmly Democratic
VT-ALBecca Balint85D+35.3Firmly Democratic
MA-08Stephen Lynch86D+34.6Firmly Democratic
VA-0487D+34.0Firmly Democratic
TX-16Veronica Escobar88D+33.8Firmly Democratic
NC-04Valerie Foushee89D+33.7Firmly Democratic
CA-28Judy Chu90D+31.9Firmly Democratic
NJ-12Bonnie Watson Coleman91D+31.8Firmly Democratic
AZ-07Raul Grijalva92D+31.7Firmly Democratic
CA-50Scott Peters93D+31.5Firmly Democratic
PA-05Mary Gay Scanlon94D+31.1Firmly Democratic
TX-20Joaquin Castro95D+31.1Firmly Democratic
WA-01Suzan DelBene96D+30.4Firmly Democratic
SC-06Jim Clyburn97D+30.4Firmly Democratic
AL-07Terri Sewell98D+30.3Firmly Democratic
TX-32Colin Allred99D+30.3Firmly Democratic
MA-02Jim McGovern100D+30.1Firmly Democratic
CA-31Grace Napolitano101D+29.1Firmly Democratic
HI-01Ed Case102D+29.0Firmly Democratic
CT-04Jim Himes103D+29.0Firmly Democratic
CA-46Lou Correa104D+29.0Firmly Democratic
HI-02Jill Tokuda105D+28.9Firmly Democratic
NC-12Alma Adams106D+28.4Firmly Democratic
CA-38Linda Sánchez107D+28.3Firmly Democratic
FL-10Maxwell Alejandro Frost108D+28.3Firmly Democratic
TX-07Lizzie Fletcher109D+27.8Firmly Democratic
CA-24Salud Carbajal110D+27.6Firmly Democratic
NC-02Deborah Ross111D+27.5Firmly Democratic
NY-06Grace Meng112D+27.5Firmly Democratic
RI-01David Cicilline113D+27.4Firmly Democratic
MA-04Jake Auchincloss114D+27.3Firmly Democratic
MA-06Seth Moulton115D+27.1Firmly Democratic
CT-01John Larson116D+26.3Firmly Democratic
MI-06Debbie Dingell117D+26.3Firmly Democratic
CA-35Norma Torres118D+26.2Firmly Democratic
MA-03Lori Trahan119D+26.1Firmly Democratic
CA-51Sara Jacobs120D+25.3Firmly Democratic
MO-05Emanuel Cleaver121D+25.3Firmly Democratic
IL-10Brad Schneider122D+25.1Firmly Democratic
CA-39Mark Takano123D+24.2Firmly Democratic
CA-33Pete Aguilar124D+24.0Firmly Democratic
MS-02Bennie Thompson125D+23.9Firmly Democratic
MD-03John Sarbanes126D+23.7Firmly Democratic
GA-07Lucy McBath127D+23.5Firmly Democratic
CO-06Jason Crow128D+23.1Firmly Democratic
NJ-01Donald Norcross129D+23.0Firmly Democratic
ME-01Chellie Pingree130D+22.7Firmly Democratic
WA-02Rick Larsen131D+22.6Firmly Democratic
MA-01Richard “Richie” Neal132D+21.3Firmly Democratic
KY-03Morgan McGarvey133D+20.5Firmly Democratic
NY-26Brian Higgins134D+20.5Firmly Democratic
MN-03Dean Phillips135D+19.4Firmly Democratic
MD-02Dutch Ruppersberger136D+19.3Firmly Democratic
MI-11Haley Stevens137D+19.2Firmly Democratic
PA-12Summer Lee138D+18.4Firmly Democratic
CA-21Jim Costa139D+18.2Firmly Democratic
CT-03Rosa DeLauro140D+18.0Firmly Democratic
PA-04Madeleine Dean141D+18.0Firmly Democratic
CA-26Julia Brownley142D+17.6Firmly Democratic
NJ-06Frank Pallone143D+17.6Firmly Democratic
DE-ALLisa Blunt Rochester144D+17.3Firmly Democratic
MA-09Bill Keating145D+17.2Firmly Democratic
WA-10Marilyn Strickland146D+17.2Firmly Democratic
WA-06Derek Kilmer147D+17.0Firmly Democratic
NJ-09Bill Pascrell148D+16.9Firmly Democratic
CA-06Ami Bera149D+16.5Firmly Democratic
NY-25Joe Morelle150D+16.5Firmly Democratic
FL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz151D+16.4Firmly Democratic
FL-14Kathy Castor152D+16.2Firmly Democratic
NY-20Paul Tonko153D+15.7Firmly Democratic
VA-10Jennifer Wexton154D+15.2Firmly Democratic
NJ-11Mikie Sherrill155D+14.7Mostly Democratic
NC-14Jeff Jackson156D+14.4Mostly Democratic
FL-09Darren Soto157D+14.3Mostly Democratic
FL-22Lois Frankel158D+14.2Mostly Democratic
IL-08Raja Krishnamoorthi159D+14.2Mostly Democratic
TX-34Vicente González160D+13.7Mostly Democratic
NM-01Melanie Stansbury161D+13.6Mostly Democratic
PA-06Chrissy Houlahan162D+13.6Mostly Democratic
CA-25Raul Ruiz163D+13.4Mostly Democratic
IL-11Bill Foster164D+13.4Mostly Democratic
CO-07Brittany Pettersen165D+12.8Mostly Democratic
NJ-03Andy Kim166D+11.5Mostly Democratic
NC-06Kathy Manning167D+11.0Mostly Democratic
NM-03Teresa Leger Fernandez168D+10.7Mostly Democratic
OR-06Andrea Salinas169D+10.6Mostly Democratic
RI-02Seth Magaziner170D+10.5Mostly Democratic
OR-04Val Hoyle171D+10.4Mostly Democratic
CA-09Josh Harder172D+10.4Mostly Democratic
NY-04Anthony D’Esposito173D+10.1Mostly Democratic
IL-14Lauren Underwood174D+10.1Mostly Democratic
NJ-05Josh Gottheimer175D+10.0Mostly Democratic
FL-23Jared Moskowitz176D+9.6Moderately Democratic
CT-02Joe Courtney177D+9.5Moderately Democratic
IL-13Nikki Budzinski178D+9.5Moderately Democratic
CA-22David Valadao179D+9.3Moderately Democratic
IL-06Sean Casten180D+9.2Moderately Democratic
GA-02Sanford Bishop181D+9.0Moderately Democratic
CA-49Mike Levin182D+8.7Moderately Democratic
NH-02Annie Kuster183D+8.6Moderately Democratic
AZ-04Greg Stanton184D+8.6Moderately Democratic
CA-47Katie Porter185D+8.5Moderately Democratic
MD-06David Trone186D+8.4Moderately Democratic
CA-27Mike Garcia187D+8.3Moderately Democratic
CT-05Jahana Hayes188D+8.3Moderately Democratic
CA-13John Duarte189D+7.9Moderately Democratic
NY-17Mike Lawler190D+6.8Moderately Democratic
IN-01Frank Mrvan191D+6.8Moderately Democratic
MI-03Hillary Scholten192D+6.8Moderately Democratic
NV-04Steven Horsford193D+6.3Moderately Democratic
NV-01Dina Titus194D+6.2Moderately Democratic
NC-01Don Davis195D+6.1Moderately Democratic
OH-01Greg Landsman196D+6.0Moderately Democratic
OR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemer197D+5.9Moderately Democratic
WA-08Kim Schrier198D+5.7Moderately Democratic
IL-17Eric Sorensen199D+5.5Moderately Democratic
TX-28Henry Cuellar200D+5.3Moderately Democratic
MN-02Angie Craig201D+5.3Moderately Democratic
NH-01Chris Pappas202D+5.0Moderately Democratic
NY-18Pat Ryan203D+4.4Moderately Democratic
VA-07Abigail Spanberger204D+4.3Moderately Democratic
PA-17Chris Deluzio205D+4.2Moderately Democratic
NV-03Susie Lee206D+4.2Moderately Democratic
NM-02Gabe Vasquez207D+3.8Even
NY-03George Santos208D+3.6Even
NY-22Brandon Williams209D+3.5Even
KS-03Sharice Davids210D+3.3Even
NE-02Don Bacon211D+3.0Even
CO-08Yadira Caraveo212D+2.7Even
CA-45Michelle Steel213D+2.5Even
PA-01Brian Fitzpatrick214D+2.0Even
MI-08Dan Kildee215D+1.6Even
OH-13Emilia Sykes216D+1.0Even
NJ-07Tom Kean217D+0.6Even
NY-19Marc Molinaro218D+0.5Even
MI-07Elissa Slotkin219R+0.1Even
NC-13Wiley Nickel220R+0.6Even
VA-02Jen Kiggans221R+0.7Even
PA-07Susan Wild222R+1.0Even
AZ-01David Schweikert223R+1.4Even
IA-03Zach Nunn224R+2.5Even
CA-40Young Kim225R+2.6Even
AZ-06Juan Ciscomani226R+2.6Even
MI-10John James227R+3.0Even
OH-09Marcy Kaptur228R+3.6Even
NY-01Nick LaLota229R+4.2Moderately Republican
PA-08Matt Cartwright230R+4.4Moderately Republican
WI-01Bryan Steil231R+4.4Moderately Republican
FL-27María Elvira Salazar232R+4.6Moderately Republican
CA-41Ken Calvert233R+4.9Moderately Republican
CA-03Kevin Kiley234R+5.0Moderately Republican
TX-15Monica De La Cruz235R+5.1Moderately Republican
WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez236R+5.7Moderately Republican
IA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks237R+5.9Moderately Republican
WI-03Derrick Van Orden238R+6.3Moderately Republican
ME-02Jared Golden239R+6.4Moderately Republican
OH-10Mike Turner240R+6.4Moderately Republican
NY-02Andrew Garbarino241R+6.7Moderately Republican
MI-04Bill Huizenga242R+7.0Moderately Republican
PA-10Scott Perry243R+7.2Moderately Republican
IA-02Ashley Hinson244R+7.3Moderately Republican
FL-15Laurel Lee245R+7.8Moderately Republican
NJ-02Jeff Van Drew246R+9.0Moderately Republican
MT-01Ryan Zinke247R+9.2Moderately Republican
AZ-02Eli Crane248R+9.3Moderately Republican
OH-15Mike Carey249R+9.8Moderately Republican
CO-03Lauren Boebert250R+10.4Mostly Republican
FL-13Anna Paulina Luna251R+10.5Mostly Republican
FL-28Carlos Giménez252R+10.5Mostly Republican
FL-07Cory Mills253R+10.6Mostly Republican
VA-01Rob Wittman254R+10.9Mostly Republican
NC-09Richard Hudson255R+10.9Mostly Republican
TX-23Tony Gonzales256R+11.2Mostly Republican
MO-02Ann Wagner257R+11.2Mostly Republican
AK-ALMary Peltola258R+11.4Mostly Republican
VA-05Bob Good259R+11.4Mostly Republican
OH-07Max Miller260R+11.6Mostly Republican
FL-04Aaron Bean261R+11.8Mostly Republican
NC-11Chuck Edwards262R+12.1Mostly Republican
MN-01Brad Finstad263R+12.2Mostly Republican
NY-11Nicole Malliotakis264R+12.6Mostly Republican
SC-01Nancy Mace265R+13.0Mostly Republican
WA-05Cathy McMorris Rodgers266R+13.0Mostly Republican
GA-12Rick Allen267R+13.4Mostly Republican
MN-08Pete Stauber268R+13.5Mostly Republican
CO-05Doug Lamborn269R+13.6Mostly Republican
CA-23Jay Obernolte270R+13.9Mostly Republican
NE-01Mike Flood271R+14.4Mostly Republican
FL-16Vern Buchanan272R+14.4Mostly Republican
TN-05Andy Ogles273R+14.5Mostly Republican
KY-06Andy Barr274R+14.7Mostly Republican
FL-21Brian Mast275R+14.8Mostly Republican
SC-02Joe Wilson276R+15.1Firmly Republican
NV-02Mark Amodei277R+15.2Firmly Republican
FL-02Neal Dunn278R+15.2Firmly Republican
NC-07David Rouzer279R+15.2Firmly Republican
AZ-08Debbie Lesko280R+16.0Firmly Republican
FL-11Daniel Webster281R+16.2Firmly Republican
CA-05Tom McClintock282R+16.4Firmly Republican
GA-01Buddy Carter283R+16.5Firmly Republican
NY-21Elise Stefanik284R+17.0Firmly Republican
TX-24Beth Van Duyne285R+17.1Firmly Republican
CA-48Darrell Issa286R+17.2Firmly Republican
AR-02French Hill287R+17.3Firmly Republican
MD-01Andy Harris288R+17.3Firmly Republican
OH-14Dave Joyce289R+17.4Firmly Republican
WI-08Mike Gallagher290R+17.7Firmly Republican
WI-06Glenn Grothman291R+17.8Firmly Republican
TX-03Keith Self292R+18.4Firmly Republican
KS-02Jake LaTurner293R+18.5Firmly Republican
GA-06Rich McCormick294R+18.7Firmly Republican
TN-07Mark Green295R+19.0Firmly Republican
FL-03Kat Cammack296R+19.3Firmly Republican
GA-11Barry Loudermilk297R+19.4Firmly Republican
IN-05Victoria Spartz298R+20.1Firmly Republican
AZ-05Andy Biggs299R+20.3Firmly Republican
WA-04Dan Newhouse300R+20.3Firmly Republican
TX-22Troy Nehls301R+20.5Firmly Republican
FL-17Greg Steube302R+20.8Firmly Republican
FL-05John Rutherford303R+20.9Firmly Republican
MN-06Tom Emmer304R+21.4Firmly Republican
NY-23Nick Langworthy305R+21.6Firmly Republican
CO-04Ken Buck306R+21.7Firmly Republican
MI-01Jack Bergman307R+21.7Firmly Republican
OK-05Stephanie Bice308R+21.8Firmly Republican
SC-07Russell Fry309R+21.9Firmly Republican
UT-02Chris Stewart310R+22.0Firmly Republican
WI-07Tom Tiffany311R+22.1Firmly Republican
SC-05Ralph Norman312R+22.4Firmly Republican
FL-26Mario Diaz-Balart313R+22.5Firmly Republican
NY-24Claudia Tenney314R+22.5Firmly Republican
TX-26Michael Burgess315R+22.6Firmly Republican
TX-38Wesley Hunt316R+22.7Firmly Republican
FL-08Bill Posey317R+22.7Firmly Republican
PA-16Mike Kelly318R+22.7Firmly Republican
TX-12Kay Granger319R+22.8Firmly Republican
SC-04William Timmons320R+22.9Firmly Republican
CA-01Doug LaMalfa321R+22.9Firmly Republican
TX-10Michael McCaul322R+23.7Firmly Republican
PA-11Lloyd Smucker323R+24.1Firmly Republican
TX-21Chip Roy324R+24.3Firmly Republican
NC-05Virginia Foxx325R+24.4Firmly Republican
TX-31John Carter326R+24.4Firmly Republican
OK-01Kevin Hern327R+24.6Firmly Republican
UT-01Blake Moore328R+24.7Firmly Republican
KS-04Ron Estes329R+25.0Firmly Republican
UT-03John Curtis330R+25.1Firmly Republican
OH-08Warren Davidson331R+25.3Firmly Republican
IL-16Darin LaHood332R+25.3Firmly Republican
IN-02Rudy Yakym333R+25.7Firmly Republican
WI-05Scott Fitzgerald334R+25.8Firmly Republican
VA-06Ben Cline335R+25.9Firmly Republican
MI-05Tim Walberg336R+26.4Firmly Republican
FL-19Byron Donalds337R+26.5Firmly Republican
TX-27Michael Cloud338R+26.6Firmly Republican
GA-10Mike Collins339R+26.6Firmly Republican
NJ-04Chris Smith340R+26.8Firmly Republican
TX-05Lance Gooden341R+26.9Firmly Republican
ID-02Mike Simpson342R+27.0Firmly Republican
TX-17Pete Sessions343R+27.1Firmly Republican
FL-18Scott Franklin344R+27.6Firmly Republican
TX-06Jake Ellzey345R+27.7Firmly Republican
TX-02Dan Crenshaw346R+28.1Firmly Republican
AR-03Steve Womack347R+28.1Firmly Republican
AZ-09Paul Gosar348R+28.2Firmly Republican
FL-06Mike Waltz349R+28.4Firmly Republican
OR-02Cliff Bentz350R+28.4Firmly Republican
NC-03Greg Murphy351R+28.5Firmly Republican
MS-03Michael Guest352R+28.9Firmly Republican
LA-04Mike Johnson353R+29.1Firmly Republican
OH-05Bob Latta354R+29.6Firmly Republican
IA-04Randy Feenstra355R+29.9Firmly Republican
MO-03Blaine Luetkemeyer356R+30.0Firmly Republican
SD-ALDusty Johnson357R+30.1Firmly Republican
CA-20Kevin McCarthy358R+30.1Firmly Republican
IN-09Erin Houchin359R+30.3Firmly Republican
TX-04Pat Fallon360R+30.6Firmly Republican
MI-02John Moolenaar361R+30.8Firmly Republican
OH-06Bill Johnson362R+31.0Firmly Republican
AL-05Dale Strong363R+31.0Firmly Republican
GA-08Austin Scott364R+31.1Firmly Republican
MT-02Matt Rosendale365R+31.4Firmly Republican
TX-08Morgan Luttrell366R+31.5Firmly Republican
UT-04Burgess Owens367R+31.6Firmly Republican
MI-09Lisa McClain368R+31.9Firmly Republican
AL-01Jerry Carl369R+32.3Firmly Republican
TX-14Randy Weber370R+32.6Firmly Republican
KS-01Tracey Mann371R+32.6Firmly Republican
IN-04Jim Baird372R+33.0Firmly Republican
TN-06John Rose373R+33.0Firmly Republican
TN-02Tim Burchett374R+33.3Firmly Republican
AL-02Barry Moore375R+33.4Firmly Republican
PA-14Guy Reschenthaler376R+33.6Firmly Republican
OH-12Troy Balderson377R+33.7Firmly Republican
FL-12Gus Bilirakis378R+33.9Firmly Republican
IN-03Jim Banks379R+33.9Firmly Republican
GA-03Drew Ferguson380R+34.1Firmly Republican
LA-05Julia Letlow381R+34.4Firmly Republican
AL-06Gary Palmer382R+34.4Firmly Republican
OK-04Tom Cole383R+34.4Firmly Republican
TX-25Roger Williams384R+35.1Firmly Republican
TN-03Chuck Fleischmann385R+35.6Firmly Republican
TX-36Brian Babin386R+35.8Firmly Republican
KY-04Thomas Massie387R+35.9Firmly Republican
IN-08Larry Bucshon388R+36.1Firmly Republican
IN-06Greg Pence389R+36.2Firmly Republican
MS-01Trent Kelly390R+36.3Firmly Republican
MN-07Michelle Fischbach391R+36.6Firmly Republican
NC-08Dan Bishop392R+37.2Firmly Republican
ND-ALKelly Armstrong393R+37.3Firmly Republican
FL-01Matt Gaetz394R+37.8Firmly Republican
LA-06Garret Graves395R+38.2Firmly Republican
AL-03Mike Rogers396R+38.3Firmly Republican
OH-04Jim Jordan397R+39.2Firmly Republican
AR-04Bruce Westerman398R+39.4Firmly Republican
PA-09Dan Meuser399R+39.4Firmly Republican
PA-15Glenn “GT” Thompson400R+39.7Firmly Republican
WV-02Alex Mooney401R+39.8Firmly Republican
KY-02Brett Guthrie402R+40.4Firmly Republican
GA-14Marjorie Taylor Greene403R+40.4Firmly Republican
MO-06Sam Graves404R+40.5Firmly Republican
TN-08David Kustoff405R+41.3Firmly Republican
TN-04Scott DesJarlais406R+41.6Firmly Republican
IL-15Mary Miller407R+41.6Firmly Republican
SC-03Jeff Duncan408R+41.6Firmly Republican
GA-09Andrew Clyde409R+42.0Firmly Republican
MS-04Mike Ezell410R+42.2Firmly Republican
ID-01Russ Fulcher411R+42.2Firmly Republican
MO-04Mark Alford412R+42.4Firmly Republican
LA-03Clay Higgins413R+42.4Firmly Republican
NC-10Patrick McHenry414R+42.8Firmly Republican
WV-01Carol Miller415R+43.4Firmly Republican
TX-11August Pfluger416R+44.1Firmly Republican
MO-07Eric Burlison417R+44.2Firmly Republican
AR-01Rick Crawford418R+44.7Firmly Republican
VA-09Morgan Griffith419R+45.3Firmly Republican
LA-01Steve Scalise420R+45.3Firmly Republican
KY-01James Comer421R+46.1Firmly Republican
IL-12Mike Bost422R+46.3Firmly Republican
OK-03Frank Lucas423R+46.3Firmly Republican
PA-13John Joyce424R+47.5Firmly Republican
WY-ALHarriet Hageman425R+47.6Firmly Republican
OH-02Brad Wenstrup426R+48.0Firmly Republican
TX-01Nathaniel Moran427R+49.3Firmly Republican
TX-19Jodey Arrington428R+50.1Firmly Republican
TX-13Ronny Jackson429R+50.4Firmly Republican
OK-02Josh Brecheen430R+54.7Firmly Republican
MO-08Jason Smith431R+54.8Firmly Republican
NE-03Adrian Smith432R+55.9Firmly Republican
TN-01Diana Harshbarger433R+58.4Firmly Republican
KY-05Hal Rogers434R+62.4Firmly Republican
AL-04Robert Aderholt435R+65.6Firmly Republican

Author’s Note

The Split Ticket CVI was adjusted on January 22nd to ensure consistency with the revised 2022 WAR model. Minor changes in CVI score moved the median seat from NJ-07 (Kean) to NY-19 (Molinaro) though our overarching conclusions remained the same.

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