INTRODUCTION
Split Ticket’s new Congressional Voting Index (CVI) gauges each House district’s partisan lean. In contrast to counterparts like Cook PVI, our CVI uses a unique methodology that makes it more representative of the current electoral climate. This tool will improve our 2024 House ratings by shedding light on how seats may be expected to vote after accounting for candidate-driven effects and the national environment.
BACKGROUND
Our CVI builds off of three previous projects: the 2022 House WAR model, the SHAVE metric, and the Trend Score index. The first tool provides adjusted district partisanships for the last two presidential elections as well as candidate-independent 2022 House results estimates for every seat. The second allows us to predict how uncontested seats might have voted, relative to state-level environments in a given cycle, had they been contested by Republican and Democratic nominees. The last quantifies the direction in which individual House seats are trending and how unrealized shifts impact flippability. A browsable table with per-district CVI scores is available here and at the bottom of this article (best viewed on Desktop).
RESULTS
Our CVI can be found on our website. Each district is placed into one of seven categories based on calculated partisanships. Associated score ranges are defined below.
Observations
There are obviously too many CVI leans to discuss in one article, so we decided to break down important House generalities based on the categories provided below. Holistic analysis allows us to see which party would have an inherent advantage in the House based on our leans alone. Viewing federal partisanship without candidate-driven distortions helps determine how competitive the redistricted House map really is.
If every seat were assigned by its CVI split, Democrats would control 218 to the Republicans’ 217 – an even narrower majority than the one currently held by the GOP. Of the 435 districts, 314 are rated either Firmly D/R, meaning they lean toward either party by at least 15 points and are not considered competitive. 121 seats are classified as Even, Moderately D/R, or Mostly D/R.
Of those districts, the 22 in the Even group form the so-called “competitive core” of the House playing field. With minor exceptions like PA-01, where GOP incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick is formidable, these districts should be the chamber’s most volatile from cycle to cycle. A quick look at our Flip Index shows predictable overlap.
The Democrats’ 218 to 217 CVI majority also seems to confirm prior Split Ticket research which found that the recently-redistricted House map may have a D+1 House bias, a far cry from the that of the gerrymandered Republican lines pioneered by Project REDMAP in 2012. Our 218th seat, New York’s 19th district, has a D+0.5 partisanship, suggesting the chamber does indeed align with last year’s estimates.
The 19th (Biden +4.6) may not be a cross-section of America, but it is an excellent embodiment of the traditionally-Republican, Democratic-trending swing seats which now sustain the GOP’s narrow 222-213 majority. Republican Marc Molinaro flipped this open district last November after losing an August special election to Democrat Pat Ryan. Whether or not he wins reelection in the median seat with President Joe Biden on the ballot should be an excellent bellwether for overall House control.
As we alluded to above, the threadbare Republican House majority currently relies on a dozen moderate and center-right incumbents representing districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. In other words, ticket splitting evoked by specific candidates, like Molinaro, helped the GOP secure control of a chamber that Democrats would be expected to win with generic candidates under neutral environmental conditions.
To get an early look at how vulnerable the Republicans’ majority will be to the effects of presidential turnout and polarization in 2024, we tallied the number of crossover seats based on our CVI lean, not 2020 presidential, to divide up the Republican and Democratic conferences into each of the seven classifications defined previously. This allows us to predict, for example, the most vulnerable districts held by both parties based on partisanship alone. Keep in mind that incumbency and candidate effects will be factored into our eventual ratings.
We define a crossover incumbent as a member representing a seat that leans toward the opposite party. There are 21 of these representatives under the CVI Splits, 11 of whom represent “Even” districts. The long-term vulnerabilities of the GOP House majority become quite apparent when one considers that 13 of the 21 total crossover districts (62%) are held by Republican incumbents; seven of them won marginal Biden seats, like NY-19, in 2022, all of which will be high on Democratic target lists next year.
Among those seats rated Advantage D/R and Reach D/R, which sometimes favor the minority party due to candidate quality deltas, House Republicans are stretched even thinner. They have six crossover seats across the two categories compared to the Democrats’ four. Six of these ten members are also freshmen, though Mary Peltola (AK-AL) did win an August special election before securing a full term.
A final thorn in the Republicans’ side is the experience of their crossover candidates in seats with particularly-hostile partisanships. While incumbents like Mike Garcia (CA-27) and David Valadao (CA-22) have proved their strength in multiple difficult cycles, newer members such as Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04) and Mike Lawler (NY-17) remain untested in presidential years. Democrats like Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and Jared Golden (ME-02), by contrast, have clear records of electoral success in Trump-won seats.
Assuming the national environment is more Democratic in 2024 than it was in 2022, our numbers suggest that Republicans, particularly those crossover freshmen elected narrowly last fall, will be on the offensive in a TOSSUP House chamber. House bias may favor Democrats slightly (D+0.5), but a 218-217 majority is effectively a dead heat. We consider this a fair median case given higher levels of expected voter turnout and accompanying presidential-year polarization.
While we think it’s possible for Democrats to end up with a larger margin of victory, especially if former President Donald Trump drags down Republicans like Marc Molinaro as the 2024 GOP nominee, there is currently not enough evidence to suggest either party is favored in the chamber.
Democratic success will depend on recruitment in individual races, shrewd spending decisions, favorable state-level political environments, ineffectual mid-decade redistricting, and the Republicans’ presidential nominee. At the minimum, Democrats are expected to devote more time, money, and interest to seats in which they narrowly came up short last November like AZ-01, AZ-06, MI-10, and CA-41.
Detailed Methodology
Let’s now break down the methodology underlying our CVI leans. We collected four results variables for each of the nation’s 435 House seats: 2020 presidential, 2022 congressional, 2024 estimated, and 2016 presidential. They received weights of 50%, 25%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. To ensure an even national environment in our calculations, we shifted all WAR model data uniformly based on the cycle.
Weight assignments reduced the effects of recency bias and elastic midterm phenomena like down-ballot lag. We chose to avoid state-level returns (i.e., gubernatorial results) for the sake of consistency and relevance to national dynamics, as the CVI is intended to be a federal election metric. The lack of uniform statewide data also drove us to exclude numbers from 2018.
The 2020 and 2016 district-by-district presidential results are internally-consistent with the other WAR model data and account for differing national environments. 2020’s returns receive significantly more weight than 2016’s in the CVI because they are more recent and, therefore, the better gauge of potential 2024 coalitions in swing districts – even if Democrats lose the White House.
Hillary Clinton’s 2016 win in Mahoning County (OH), for example, could not be replicated by Joe Biden in 2020 or even Senate nominee Tim Ryan in 2022, suggesting that placing too much emphasis on 2016 could overstate the strength of both parties’ historical coalitions ex post facto. That said, anomalies like Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial race should remind us that trends are not linear. In other words, 2016 numbers are still meaningful enough to be included in our calculations to a minor extent.
The variable receiving the second-most weight after 2020 adjusted presidential lean is 2022 wins-above-replacement (WAR) predicted, which controls for candidate-driven variations in the actual midterm results by calculating how generic Republican and Democratic candidates would have been expected to perform in each House district. 2022 SHAVE estimates filled in the gaps for uncontested seats where WAR findings could not be applied. All values were shifted leftward by 1.6 points to control for the national environment.
We account for candidate quality deltas in our CVI scores because they are designed to accurately quantify each seat’s baseline partisan lean void of effects related to the strengths and weaknesses of specific nominees. Had we, for instance, not controlled for Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 16-point overperformance in OH-09, a Trump-won seat, the district’s calculated partisan lean would have been embarrassingly misrepresentative of political realities.
The final piece of the methodological puzzle comes from our set of Trend & Flip Scores, which can be found here. While last month’s Trend Scores do utilize the actual 2016 and 2020 presidential results, applying the adjusted WAR numbers to the underlying formula does not significantly change any outcomes. We derive our estimated 2024 leans by shifting 2020 toplines based on each district’s Trend Score. By putting slightly more weight on where a seat is going (2024) than where it has been (2016), we believe our CVI scores become more circumspect.
There are, however, a few caveats worth mentioning as we head into the 2023-2024 cycle. Mid-decade redistricting is set to take place in North Carolina and Ohio, with rumors of a Texas redraw also in the mix. A recent court decision additionally struck down South Carolina’s 1st district following a racial discrimination lawsuit, which would force changes to the Palmetto State’s congressional lines should SCOTUS let it stand. Split Ticket’s CVI will be updated as soon as new maps are approved for the upcoming cycle. Revised methodology will be used when necessary.
Per-District CVIs
| DISTRICT | INCUMBENT | RANK | PARTISANSHIP | CLASSIFICATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-12 | Barbara Lee | 1 | D+80.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-04 | Glenn Ivey | 2 | D+80.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| PA-03 | Dwight Evans | 3 | D+79.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal | 4 | D+76.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-11 | Nancy Pelosi | 5 | D+74.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-13 | Adriano Espaillat | 6 | D+73.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-07 | Ayanna Pressley | 7 | D+72.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-37 | Sydney Kamlager | 8 | D+71.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-07 | Danny Davis | 9 | D+71.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-12 | Jerry Nadler | 10 | D+68.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-10 | Dan Goldman | 11 | D+68.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-15 | Ritchie Torres | 12 | D+67.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| GA-05 | Nikema Williams | 13 | D+65.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-34 | Jimmy Gomez | 14 | D+63.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume | 15 | D+62.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| MN-05 | Ilhan Omar | 16 | D+62.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-08 | Jamie Raskin | 17 | D+62.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CO-01 | Diana DeGette | 18 | D+61.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters | 19 | D+61.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-10 | Donald Payne | 20 | D+60.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-07 | Nydia Velázquez | 21 | D+60.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-05 | Gregory Meeks | 22 | D+59.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| GA-13 | David Scott | 23 | D+58.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| MO-01 | Cori Bush | 24 | D+57.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| OH-11 | Shontel Brown | 25 | D+57.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson | 26 | D+56.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin | 27 | D+55.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-30 | Jasmine Crockett | 28 | D+54.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| VA-08 | Don Beyer | 29 | D+54.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 30 | D+53.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-08 | John Garamendi | 31 | D+52.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| WI-04 | Gwen Moore | 32 | D+52.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-09 | Al Green | 33 | D+51.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-37 | Lloyd Doggett | 34 | D+51.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-16 | Anna Eshoo | 35 | D+51.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-08 | Hakeem Jeffries | 36 | D+50.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| LA-02 | Troy Carter | 37 | D+50.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-05 | Katherine Clark | 38 | D+50.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| AZ-03 | Ruben Gallego | 39 | D+50.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-29 | Tony Cárdenas | 40 | D+49.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| FL-20 | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 41 | D+49.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-09 | Yvette Clark | 42 | D+48.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| MI-13 | Shri Thanedar | 43 | D+48.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-02 | Jared Huffman | 44 | D+48.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib | 45 | D+48.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-33 | Marc Veasey | 46 | D+48.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán | 47 | D+47.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | 48 | D+46.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| OR-03 | Earl Blumenauer | 49 | D+46.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | 50 | D+46.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| FL-24 | Frederica Wilson | 51 | D+46.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna | 52 | D+46.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-04 | Jesús “Chuy” García | 53 | D+45.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-09 | Adam Smith | 54 | D+44.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-14 | Eric Swalwell | 55 | D+44.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-30 | Adam Schiff | 56 | D+44.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia | 57 | D+43.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-35 | Greg Casar | 58 | D+43.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| OH-03 | Joyce Beatty | 59 | D+43.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-08 | Rob Menendez | 60 | D+42.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren | 61 | D+42.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu | 62 | D+42.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle | 63 | D+42.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson | 64 | D+41.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| WI-02 | Mark Pocan | 65 | D+41.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| IN-07 | André Carson | 66 | D+41.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | 67 | D+40.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-16 | Jamaal Bowman | 68 | D+40.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-03 | Delia Ramirez | 69 | D+40.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| CO-02 | Joe Neguse | 70 | D+40.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman | 71 | D+39.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-02 | Robin Kelly | 72 | D+39.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| VA-11 | Gerry Connolly | 73 | D+39.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-05 | Mike Quigley | 74 | D+39.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici | 75 | D+38.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta | 76 | D+38.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier | 77 | D+36.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| VA-03 | Bobby Scott | 78 | D+36.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| MN-04 | Betty McCollum | 79 | D+36.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-07 | Doris Matsui | 80 | D+35.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia | 81 | D+35.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-05 | Steny Hoyer | 82 | D+35.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-04 | Mike Thompson | 83 | D+35.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas | 84 | D+35.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| VT-AL | Becca Balint | 85 | D+35.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-08 | Stephen Lynch | 86 | D+34.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| VA-04 | 87 | D+34.0 | Firmly Democratic | |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar | 88 | D+33.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| NC-04 | Valerie Foushee | 89 | D+33.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu | 90 | D+31.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-12 | Bonnie Watson Coleman | 91 | D+31.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| AZ-07 | Raul Grijalva | 92 | D+31.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters | 93 | D+31.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon | 94 | D+31.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro | 95 | D+31.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-01 | Suzan DelBene | 96 | D+30.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| SC-06 | Jim Clyburn | 97 | D+30.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| AL-07 | Terri Sewell | 98 | D+30.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-32 | Colin Allred | 99 | D+30.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-02 | Jim McGovern | 100 | D+30.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-31 | Grace Napolitano | 101 | D+29.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| HI-01 | Ed Case | 102 | D+29.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CT-04 | Jim Himes | 103 | D+29.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa | 104 | D+29.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| HI-02 | Jill Tokuda | 105 | D+28.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams | 106 | D+28.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-38 | Linda Sánchez | 107 | D+28.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Alejandro Frost | 108 | D+28.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher | 109 | D+27.8 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal | 110 | D+27.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| NC-02 | Deborah Ross | 111 | D+27.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-06 | Grace Meng | 112 | D+27.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| RI-01 | David Cicilline | 113 | D+27.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-04 | Jake Auchincloss | 114 | D+27.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-06 | Seth Moulton | 115 | D+27.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CT-01 | John Larson | 116 | D+26.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MI-06 | Debbie Dingell | 117 | D+26.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres | 118 | D+26.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-03 | Lori Trahan | 119 | D+26.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs | 120 | D+25.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver | 121 | D+25.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| IL-10 | Brad Schneider | 122 | D+25.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano | 123 | D+24.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar | 124 | D+24.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| MS-02 | Bennie Thompson | 125 | D+23.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-03 | John Sarbanes | 126 | D+23.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| GA-07 | Lucy McBath | 127 | D+23.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| CO-06 | Jason Crow | 128 | D+23.1 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-01 | Donald Norcross | 129 | D+23.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| ME-01 | Chellie Pingree | 130 | D+22.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-02 | Rick Larsen | 131 | D+22.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-01 | Richard “Richie” Neal | 132 | D+21.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey | 133 | D+20.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-26 | Brian Higgins | 134 | D+20.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| MN-03 | Dean Phillips | 135 | D+19.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| MD-02 | Dutch Ruppersberger | 136 | D+19.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MI-11 | Haley Stevens | 137 | D+19.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee | 138 | D+18.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa | 139 | D+18.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | 140 | D+18.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean | 141 | D+18.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-26 | Julia Brownley | 142 | D+17.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone | 143 | D+17.6 | Firmly Democratic |
| DE-AL | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 144 | D+17.3 | Firmly Democratic |
| MA-09 | Bill Keating | 145 | D+17.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland | 146 | D+17.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| WA-06 | Derek Kilmer | 147 | D+17.0 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-09 | Bill Pascrell | 148 | D+16.9 | Firmly Democratic |
| CA-06 | Ami Bera | 149 | D+16.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-25 | Joe Morelle | 150 | D+16.5 | Firmly Democratic |
| FL-25 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 151 | D+16.4 | Firmly Democratic |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 152 | D+16.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| NY-20 | Paul Tonko | 153 | D+15.7 | Firmly Democratic |
| VA-10 | Jennifer Wexton | 154 | D+15.2 | Firmly Democratic |
| NJ-11 | Mikie Sherrill | 155 | D+14.7 | Mostly Democratic |
| NC-14 | Jeff Jackson | 156 | D+14.4 | Mostly Democratic |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto | 157 | D+14.3 | Mostly Democratic |
| FL-22 | Lois Frankel | 158 | D+14.2 | Mostly Democratic |
| IL-08 | Raja Krishnamoorthi | 159 | D+14.2 | Mostly Democratic |
| TX-34 | Vicente González | 160 | D+13.7 | Mostly Democratic |
| NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury | 161 | D+13.6 | Mostly Democratic |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan | 162 | D+13.6 | Mostly Democratic |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz | 163 | D+13.4 | Mostly Democratic |
| IL-11 | Bill Foster | 164 | D+13.4 | Mostly Democratic |
| CO-07 | Brittany Pettersen | 165 | D+12.8 | Mostly Democratic |
| NJ-03 | Andy Kim | 166 | D+11.5 | Mostly Democratic |
| NC-06 | Kathy Manning | 167 | D+11.0 | Mostly Democratic |
| NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernandez | 168 | D+10.7 | Mostly Democratic |
| OR-06 | Andrea Salinas | 169 | D+10.6 | Mostly Democratic |
| RI-02 | Seth Magaziner | 170 | D+10.5 | Mostly Democratic |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle | 171 | D+10.4 | Mostly Democratic |
| CA-09 | Josh Harder | 172 | D+10.4 | Mostly Democratic |
| NY-04 | Anthony D’Esposito | 173 | D+10.1 | Mostly Democratic |
| IL-14 | Lauren Underwood | 174 | D+10.1 | Mostly Democratic |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer | 175 | D+10.0 | Mostly Democratic |
| FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz | 176 | D+9.6 | Moderately Democratic |
| CT-02 | Joe Courtney | 177 | D+9.5 | Moderately Democratic |
| IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski | 178 | D+9.5 | Moderately Democratic |
| CA-22 | David Valadao | 179 | D+9.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| IL-06 | Sean Casten | 180 | D+9.2 | Moderately Democratic |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop | 181 | D+9.0 | Moderately Democratic |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin | 182 | D+8.7 | Moderately Democratic |
| NH-02 | Annie Kuster | 183 | D+8.6 | Moderately Democratic |
| AZ-04 | Greg Stanton | 184 | D+8.6 | Moderately Democratic |
| CA-47 | Katie Porter | 185 | D+8.5 | Moderately Democratic |
| MD-06 | David Trone | 186 | D+8.4 | Moderately Democratic |
| CA-27 | Mike Garcia | 187 | D+8.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| CT-05 | Jahana Hayes | 188 | D+8.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| CA-13 | John Duarte | 189 | D+7.9 | Moderately Democratic |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler | 190 | D+6.8 | Moderately Democratic |
| IN-01 | Frank Mrvan | 191 | D+6.8 | Moderately Democratic |
| MI-03 | Hillary Scholten | 192 | D+6.8 | Moderately Democratic |
| NV-04 | Steven Horsford | 193 | D+6.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| NV-01 | Dina Titus | 194 | D+6.2 | Moderately Democratic |
| NC-01 | Don Davis | 195 | D+6.1 | Moderately Democratic |
| OH-01 | Greg Landsman | 196 | D+6.0 | Moderately Democratic |
| OR-05 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 197 | D+5.9 | Moderately Democratic |
| WA-08 | Kim Schrier | 198 | D+5.7 | Moderately Democratic |
| IL-17 | Eric Sorensen | 199 | D+5.5 | Moderately Democratic |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar | 200 | D+5.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| MN-02 | Angie Craig | 201 | D+5.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| NH-01 | Chris Pappas | 202 | D+5.0 | Moderately Democratic |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan | 203 | D+4.4 | Moderately Democratic |
| VA-07 | Abigail Spanberger | 204 | D+4.3 | Moderately Democratic |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio | 205 | D+4.2 | Moderately Democratic |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee | 206 | D+4.2 | Moderately Democratic |
| NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez | 207 | D+3.8 | Even |
| NY-03 | George Santos | 208 | D+3.6 | Even |
| NY-22 | Brandon Williams | 209 | D+3.5 | Even |
| KS-03 | Sharice Davids | 210 | D+3.3 | Even |
| NE-02 | Don Bacon | 211 | D+3.0 | Even |
| CO-08 | Yadira Caraveo | 212 | D+2.7 | Even |
| CA-45 | Michelle Steel | 213 | D+2.5 | Even |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 214 | D+2.0 | Even |
| MI-08 | Dan Kildee | 215 | D+1.6 | Even |
| OH-13 | Emilia Sykes | 216 | D+1.0 | Even |
| NJ-07 | Tom Kean | 217 | D+0.6 | Even |
| NY-19 | Marc Molinaro | 218 | D+0.5 | Even |
| MI-07 | Elissa Slotkin | 219 | R+0.1 | Even |
| NC-13 | Wiley Nickel | 220 | R+0.6 | Even |
| VA-02 | Jen Kiggans | 221 | R+0.7 | Even |
| PA-07 | Susan Wild | 222 | R+1.0 | Even |
| AZ-01 | David Schweikert | 223 | R+1.4 | Even |
| IA-03 | Zach Nunn | 224 | R+2.5 | Even |
| CA-40 | Young Kim | 225 | R+2.6 | Even |
| AZ-06 | Juan Ciscomani | 226 | R+2.6 | Even |
| MI-10 | John James | 227 | R+3.0 | Even |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur | 228 | R+3.6 | Even |
| NY-01 | Nick LaLota | 229 | R+4.2 | Moderately Republican |
| PA-08 | Matt Cartwright | 230 | R+4.4 | Moderately Republican |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil | 231 | R+4.4 | Moderately Republican |
| FL-27 | María Elvira Salazar | 232 | R+4.6 | Moderately Republican |
| CA-41 | Ken Calvert | 233 | R+4.9 | Moderately Republican |
| CA-03 | Kevin Kiley | 234 | R+5.0 | Moderately Republican |
| TX-15 | Monica De La Cruz | 235 | R+5.1 | Moderately Republican |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 236 | R+5.7 | Moderately Republican |
| IA-01 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 237 | R+5.9 | Moderately Republican |
| WI-03 | Derrick Van Orden | 238 | R+6.3 | Moderately Republican |
| ME-02 | Jared Golden | 239 | R+6.4 | Moderately Republican |
| OH-10 | Mike Turner | 240 | R+6.4 | Moderately Republican |
| NY-02 | Andrew Garbarino | 241 | R+6.7 | Moderately Republican |
| MI-04 | Bill Huizenga | 242 | R+7.0 | Moderately Republican |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry | 243 | R+7.2 | Moderately Republican |
| IA-02 | Ashley Hinson | 244 | R+7.3 | Moderately Republican |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee | 245 | R+7.8 | Moderately Republican |
| NJ-02 | Jeff Van Drew | 246 | R+9.0 | Moderately Republican |
| MT-01 | Ryan Zinke | 247 | R+9.2 | Moderately Republican |
| AZ-02 | Eli Crane | 248 | R+9.3 | Moderately Republican |
| OH-15 | Mike Carey | 249 | R+9.8 | Moderately Republican |
| CO-03 | Lauren Boebert | 250 | R+10.4 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | 251 | R+10.5 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-28 | Carlos Giménez | 252 | R+10.5 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-07 | Cory Mills | 253 | R+10.6 | Mostly Republican |
| VA-01 | Rob Wittman | 254 | R+10.9 | Mostly Republican |
| NC-09 | Richard Hudson | 255 | R+10.9 | Mostly Republican |
| TX-23 | Tony Gonzales | 256 | R+11.2 | Mostly Republican |
| MO-02 | Ann Wagner | 257 | R+11.2 | Mostly Republican |
| AK-AL | Mary Peltola | 258 | R+11.4 | Mostly Republican |
| VA-05 | Bob Good | 259 | R+11.4 | Mostly Republican |
| OH-07 | Max Miller | 260 | R+11.6 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-04 | Aaron Bean | 261 | R+11.8 | Mostly Republican |
| NC-11 | Chuck Edwards | 262 | R+12.1 | Mostly Republican |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | 263 | R+12.2 | Mostly Republican |
| NY-11 | Nicole Malliotakis | 264 | R+12.6 | Mostly Republican |
| SC-01 | Nancy Mace | 265 | R+13.0 | Mostly Republican |
| WA-05 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | 266 | R+13.0 | Mostly Republican |
| GA-12 | Rick Allen | 267 | R+13.4 | Mostly Republican |
| MN-08 | Pete Stauber | 268 | R+13.5 | Mostly Republican |
| CO-05 | Doug Lamborn | 269 | R+13.6 | Mostly Republican |
| CA-23 | Jay Obernolte | 270 | R+13.9 | Mostly Republican |
| NE-01 | Mike Flood | 271 | R+14.4 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan | 272 | R+14.4 | Mostly Republican |
| TN-05 | Andy Ogles | 273 | R+14.5 | Mostly Republican |
| KY-06 | Andy Barr | 274 | R+14.7 | Mostly Republican |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast | 275 | R+14.8 | Mostly Republican |
| SC-02 | Joe Wilson | 276 | R+15.1 | Firmly Republican |
| NV-02 | Mark Amodei | 277 | R+15.2 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-02 | Neal Dunn | 278 | R+15.2 | Firmly Republican |
| NC-07 | David Rouzer | 279 | R+15.2 | Firmly Republican |
| AZ-08 | Debbie Lesko | 280 | R+16.0 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-11 | Daniel Webster | 281 | R+16.2 | Firmly Republican |
| CA-05 | Tom McClintock | 282 | R+16.4 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-01 | Buddy Carter | 283 | R+16.5 | Firmly Republican |
| NY-21 | Elise Stefanik | 284 | R+17.0 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne | 285 | R+17.1 | Firmly Republican |
| CA-48 | Darrell Issa | 286 | R+17.2 | Firmly Republican |
| AR-02 | French Hill | 287 | R+17.3 | Firmly Republican |
| MD-01 | Andy Harris | 288 | R+17.3 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-14 | Dave Joyce | 289 | R+17.4 | Firmly Republican |
| WI-08 | Mike Gallagher | 290 | R+17.7 | Firmly Republican |
| WI-06 | Glenn Grothman | 291 | R+17.8 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-03 | Keith Self | 292 | R+18.4 | Firmly Republican |
| KS-02 | Jake LaTurner | 293 | R+18.5 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-06 | Rich McCormick | 294 | R+18.7 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-07 | Mark Green | 295 | R+19.0 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-03 | Kat Cammack | 296 | R+19.3 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-11 | Barry Loudermilk | 297 | R+19.4 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-05 | Victoria Spartz | 298 | R+20.1 | Firmly Republican |
| AZ-05 | Andy Biggs | 299 | R+20.3 | Firmly Republican |
| WA-04 | Dan Newhouse | 300 | R+20.3 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-22 | Troy Nehls | 301 | R+20.5 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube | 302 | R+20.8 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-05 | John Rutherford | 303 | R+20.9 | Firmly Republican |
| MN-06 | Tom Emmer | 304 | R+21.4 | Firmly Republican |
| NY-23 | Nick Langworthy | 305 | R+21.6 | Firmly Republican |
| CO-04 | Ken Buck | 306 | R+21.7 | Firmly Republican |
| MI-01 | Jack Bergman | 307 | R+21.7 | Firmly Republican |
| OK-05 | Stephanie Bice | 308 | R+21.8 | Firmly Republican |
| SC-07 | Russell Fry | 309 | R+21.9 | Firmly Republican |
| UT-02 | Chris Stewart | 310 | R+22.0 | Firmly Republican |
| WI-07 | Tom Tiffany | 311 | R+22.1 | Firmly Republican |
| SC-05 | Ralph Norman | 312 | R+22.4 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-26 | Mario Diaz-Balart | 313 | R+22.5 | Firmly Republican |
| NY-24 | Claudia Tenney | 314 | R+22.5 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-26 | Michael Burgess | 315 | R+22.6 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-38 | Wesley Hunt | 316 | R+22.7 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-08 | Bill Posey | 317 | R+22.7 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-16 | Mike Kelly | 318 | R+22.7 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-12 | Kay Granger | 319 | R+22.8 | Firmly Republican |
| SC-04 | William Timmons | 320 | R+22.9 | Firmly Republican |
| CA-01 | Doug LaMalfa | 321 | R+22.9 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-10 | Michael McCaul | 322 | R+23.7 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-11 | Lloyd Smucker | 323 | R+24.1 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-21 | Chip Roy | 324 | R+24.3 | Firmly Republican |
| NC-05 | Virginia Foxx | 325 | R+24.4 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-31 | John Carter | 326 | R+24.4 | Firmly Republican |
| OK-01 | Kevin Hern | 327 | R+24.6 | Firmly Republican |
| UT-01 | Blake Moore | 328 | R+24.7 | Firmly Republican |
| KS-04 | Ron Estes | 329 | R+25.0 | Firmly Republican |
| UT-03 | John Curtis | 330 | R+25.1 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-08 | Warren Davidson | 331 | R+25.3 | Firmly Republican |
| IL-16 | Darin LaHood | 332 | R+25.3 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-02 | Rudy Yakym | 333 | R+25.7 | Firmly Republican |
| WI-05 | Scott Fitzgerald | 334 | R+25.8 | Firmly Republican |
| VA-06 | Ben Cline | 335 | R+25.9 | Firmly Republican |
| MI-05 | Tim Walberg | 336 | R+26.4 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-19 | Byron Donalds | 337 | R+26.5 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-27 | Michael Cloud | 338 | R+26.6 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-10 | Mike Collins | 339 | R+26.6 | Firmly Republican |
| NJ-04 | Chris Smith | 340 | R+26.8 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-05 | Lance Gooden | 341 | R+26.9 | Firmly Republican |
| ID-02 | Mike Simpson | 342 | R+27.0 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-17 | Pete Sessions | 343 | R+27.1 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin | 344 | R+27.6 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-06 | Jake Ellzey | 345 | R+27.7 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-02 | Dan Crenshaw | 346 | R+28.1 | Firmly Republican |
| AR-03 | Steve Womack | 347 | R+28.1 | Firmly Republican |
| AZ-09 | Paul Gosar | 348 | R+28.2 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-06 | Mike Waltz | 349 | R+28.4 | Firmly Republican |
| OR-02 | Cliff Bentz | 350 | R+28.4 | Firmly Republican |
| NC-03 | Greg Murphy | 351 | R+28.5 | Firmly Republican |
| MS-03 | Michael Guest | 352 | R+28.9 | Firmly Republican |
| LA-04 | Mike Johnson | 353 | R+29.1 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-05 | Bob Latta | 354 | R+29.6 | Firmly Republican |
| IA-04 | Randy Feenstra | 355 | R+29.9 | Firmly Republican |
| MO-03 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 356 | R+30.0 | Firmly Republican |
| SD-AL | Dusty Johnson | 357 | R+30.1 | Firmly Republican |
| CA-20 | Kevin McCarthy | 358 | R+30.1 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-09 | Erin Houchin | 359 | R+30.3 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-04 | Pat Fallon | 360 | R+30.6 | Firmly Republican |
| MI-02 | John Moolenaar | 361 | R+30.8 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-06 | Bill Johnson | 362 | R+31.0 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-05 | Dale Strong | 363 | R+31.0 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-08 | Austin Scott | 364 | R+31.1 | Firmly Republican |
| MT-02 | Matt Rosendale | 365 | R+31.4 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-08 | Morgan Luttrell | 366 | R+31.5 | Firmly Republican |
| UT-04 | Burgess Owens | 367 | R+31.6 | Firmly Republican |
| MI-09 | Lisa McClain | 368 | R+31.9 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-01 | Jerry Carl | 369 | R+32.3 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-14 | Randy Weber | 370 | R+32.6 | Firmly Republican |
| KS-01 | Tracey Mann | 371 | R+32.6 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-04 | Jim Baird | 372 | R+33.0 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-06 | John Rose | 373 | R+33.0 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-02 | Tim Burchett | 374 | R+33.3 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-02 | Barry Moore | 375 | R+33.4 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-14 | Guy Reschenthaler | 376 | R+33.6 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-12 | Troy Balderson | 377 | R+33.7 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis | 378 | R+33.9 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-03 | Jim Banks | 379 | R+33.9 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-03 | Drew Ferguson | 380 | R+34.1 | Firmly Republican |
| LA-05 | Julia Letlow | 381 | R+34.4 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-06 | Gary Palmer | 382 | R+34.4 | Firmly Republican |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | 383 | R+34.4 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-25 | Roger Williams | 384 | R+35.1 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-03 | Chuck Fleischmann | 385 | R+35.6 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-36 | Brian Babin | 386 | R+35.8 | Firmly Republican |
| KY-04 | Thomas Massie | 387 | R+35.9 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-08 | Larry Bucshon | 388 | R+36.1 | Firmly Republican |
| IN-06 | Greg Pence | 389 | R+36.2 | Firmly Republican |
| MS-01 | Trent Kelly | 390 | R+36.3 | Firmly Republican |
| MN-07 | Michelle Fischbach | 391 | R+36.6 | Firmly Republican |
| NC-08 | Dan Bishop | 392 | R+37.2 | Firmly Republican |
| ND-AL | Kelly Armstrong | 393 | R+37.3 | Firmly Republican |
| FL-01 | Matt Gaetz | 394 | R+37.8 | Firmly Republican |
| LA-06 | Garret Graves | 395 | R+38.2 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-03 | Mike Rogers | 396 | R+38.3 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-04 | Jim Jordan | 397 | R+39.2 | Firmly Republican |
| AR-04 | Bruce Westerman | 398 | R+39.4 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-09 | Dan Meuser | 399 | R+39.4 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-15 | Glenn “GT” Thompson | 400 | R+39.7 | Firmly Republican |
| WV-02 | Alex Mooney | 401 | R+39.8 | Firmly Republican |
| KY-02 | Brett Guthrie | 402 | R+40.4 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-14 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 403 | R+40.4 | Firmly Republican |
| MO-06 | Sam Graves | 404 | R+40.5 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-08 | David Kustoff | 405 | R+41.3 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-04 | Scott DesJarlais | 406 | R+41.6 | Firmly Republican |
| IL-15 | Mary Miller | 407 | R+41.6 | Firmly Republican |
| SC-03 | Jeff Duncan | 408 | R+41.6 | Firmly Republican |
| GA-09 | Andrew Clyde | 409 | R+42.0 | Firmly Republican |
| MS-04 | Mike Ezell | 410 | R+42.2 | Firmly Republican |
| ID-01 | Russ Fulcher | 411 | R+42.2 | Firmly Republican |
| MO-04 | Mark Alford | 412 | R+42.4 | Firmly Republican |
| LA-03 | Clay Higgins | 413 | R+42.4 | Firmly Republican |
| NC-10 | Patrick McHenry | 414 | R+42.8 | Firmly Republican |
| WV-01 | Carol Miller | 415 | R+43.4 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-11 | August Pfluger | 416 | R+44.1 | Firmly Republican |
| MO-07 | Eric Burlison | 417 | R+44.2 | Firmly Republican |
| AR-01 | Rick Crawford | 418 | R+44.7 | Firmly Republican |
| VA-09 | Morgan Griffith | 419 | R+45.3 | Firmly Republican |
| LA-01 | Steve Scalise | 420 | R+45.3 | Firmly Republican |
| KY-01 | James Comer | 421 | R+46.1 | Firmly Republican |
| IL-12 | Mike Bost | 422 | R+46.3 | Firmly Republican |
| OK-03 | Frank Lucas | 423 | R+46.3 | Firmly Republican |
| PA-13 | John Joyce | 424 | R+47.5 | Firmly Republican |
| WY-AL | Harriet Hageman | 425 | R+47.6 | Firmly Republican |
| OH-02 | Brad Wenstrup | 426 | R+48.0 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-01 | Nathaniel Moran | 427 | R+49.3 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-19 | Jodey Arrington | 428 | R+50.1 | Firmly Republican |
| TX-13 | Ronny Jackson | 429 | R+50.4 | Firmly Republican |
| OK-02 | Josh Brecheen | 430 | R+54.7 | Firmly Republican |
| MO-08 | Jason Smith | 431 | R+54.8 | Firmly Republican |
| NE-03 | Adrian Smith | 432 | R+55.9 | Firmly Republican |
| TN-01 | Diana Harshbarger | 433 | R+58.4 | Firmly Republican |
| KY-05 | Hal Rogers | 434 | R+62.4 | Firmly Republican |
| AL-04 | Robert Aderholt | 435 | R+65.6 | Firmly Republican |
Author’s Note
The Split Ticket CVI was adjusted on January 22nd to ensure consistency with the revised 2022 WAR model. Minor changes in CVI score moved the median seat from NJ-07 (Kean) to NY-19 (Molinaro) though our overarching conclusions remained the same.
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