Month: September 2022
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Indiana Realignment
INTRODUCTION Back in July, Split Ticket started a new analysis series looking at realignments in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. To add some geographic diversity to the repertoire, this edition will move west to break down Indiana. The Hoosier State is an excellent case study for both the national trends of… Read More
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District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th
BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44… Read More
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Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis
Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding… Read More
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What’s Going On With Trafalgar’s Polls?
Over the last two presidential cycles, the Trafalgar Group rose to fame for its polling, which yielded better-than-average results for Republicans and indicated closer races for Donald Trump than many other outlets predicted. Trafalgar partly attributes those numbers to its “social desirability metric”, which the firm claims adjusts for respondents,… Read More
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Tales From Nebraska: Virginia Smith
INTRODUCTION TO VIRGINIA SMITH Who was Virginia Smith? Even the most astute modern political analysts probably would not know the answer to that question. Generally, that lack of recognition would be indicative of bad lawmaking or a forgettable career. Despite clear anonymity, placing Mrs. Smith into this category would belie… Read More
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9/13 Primary Recap
SENATE In the GOP Senate primary, Trump-backed retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc eked out a victory over Chuck Morse by a mere percentage point. The tight margin came as a surprise to most observers, with pre-election polls suggesting a double-digit deficit for the state senate president. Bolduc will now… Read More
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9/13 Primary Watchlist
SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE In the GOP primary, retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc leads the race to challenge incumbent Democratic senator (and former New Hampshire Governor) Maggie Hassan in November. In a continuation of a theme that the GOP has faced this cycle, Bolduc is likely to be the least… Read More
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2004 Presidential Election
In July, Split Ticket started a new historical analysis series designed to explain how certain past presidential elections ushered in, or contributed to, realignments of geographic and demographic natures. Our first article touched on the 2000 Presidential Election, a contest now regarded as one of the most consequential, and controversial,… Read More