Month: August 2022

• The Gender Gap in American Politics

  August 30, 2022

  Virtually every partisan divergence in the modern American political era has been analyzed under the microscope, especially since the election of Donald Trump. This is especially true when evaluating divergences along racial, regional, and education-based lines. Perhaps one of the more under-analyzed splits has been the difference in voting patterns… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• House Temperature Check

  August 29, 2022

  INTRODUCTION Last week’s special election in New York’s 19th district was one of multiple data points that forced Split Ticket to reevaluate its perception of Republican momentum going into November. To read a detailed analysis regarding signs of a possible Democratic rebound along with some prescient caveats for the fall,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• New York’s 19th: What Does It Mean For November?

  August 26, 2022

  INTRODUCTION On Tuesday, New York’s 19th district shocked the political world and forced pundits of all stripes to reconsider some of their long-held assumptions about the political dynamics of the 2022 midterm cycle. Despite being outspent, trailing in his party’s own internal polls, and having to contest a Biden-won swing… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Temperature Check: US Senate

  August 24, 2022

  In this election cycle, the broad consensus after Democratic defeats in November 2021 was that the Republicans were poised to cruise to majorities in both the Senate and the House, with the acceleration of educational polarization combining with an unfavorable national environment to begin a possible multi-cycle Republican majority. However,… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• 8/23 Primary Recap

  August 24, 2022

  SENATE FLORIDA In the Florida Senate race, 10th district Congresswoman Val Demings secured the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Marco Rubio without a significant protest vote. Her nearest competitor, Brian Rush, carried just Liberty and Holmes counties, both located in the Panhandle. Rubio is a strong favorite to… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Statewide Watchlist/Senate Update (8/23)

  August 23, 2022

  SENATE FLORIDA In Florida, congresswoman Val Demings should coast to the Democratic nomination, setting up a November matchup with incumbent Republican senator Marco Rubio. This race was previously considered to be Safe Republican by us due to a combination of Rubio’s candidate strength and the expected Republican lean of the… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• House Watchlist (8/23)

  August 23, 2022

  HOT RACES (NEW YORK, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA) Florida’s 7th district Florida’s new 7th district (Trump +5.5) is one of the GOP’s top post-redistricting targets. The 2012 iteration of the seat (Biden +10) was greatly altered by state Republicans, who exchanged Democratic turf in Orange County, including the whiter sections of eastern… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: New York’s 19th Special

  August 22, 2022

  Background With the November general elections just a few months away, Split Ticket decided to launch a new article series called District Rundown. Editions of rundown will be released on a weekly basis until November 8th, focusing on the competitive districts that will be most important to determining House control.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Florida, Under The Hood

  August 21, 2022

  No state inspires emotionally-charged and heartbreak-filled political discourse quite like Florida does. Democrats have lost every top-ticket race since 2012, often by the thinnest of margins, and in 2020, the vaunted lurch rightward of virtually every major demographic in the state (apart from select groups of suburban college-educated whites) shocked… Read More

  Armin Thomas