Month: June 2022

• House Watchlist 6/14

  June 12, 2022

  Introduction This Tuesday, a series of hotly-contested House primaries will be occurring in Nevada and South Carolina. In addition to the latest nomination news, Split Ticket will provide updates on the House special elections in AK-AL and TX-34. To find out more about this year’s primary cycle, check out our… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• How Important Is Presidential Lean In Midterm Years?

  June 11, 2022

  Introduction Previous Split Ticket research indicates that a district’s presidential lean is the single greatest predictor of its House result in a presidential year. Polarization has only reinforced this conclusion, causing the total number of “crossover” seats to shrink significantly over the last two decades. (Read more here) Since there… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Round-up: 6/8

  June 8, 2022

  Introduction Last night had its fair share of surprises, from runoffs in Mississippi to pathbreaking results in California. Since voters in 7 new states have chosen nominees for the House of Representatives, Split Ticket feels compelled to break down the key results as they currently stand. A series of important… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/7 House Watchlist

  June 7, 2022

  Intro & CA Note Primaries will be occurring in seven different states today. Split Ticket covered California in a separate piece last week, so this write-up will be solely devoted to House contests in New Jersey and a handful of other states. Compared to past dates on the electoral calendar,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Where Do Trends Favor Each Party?

  June 6, 2022

  The most common way to look at election shifts is to look at county-level swing. This is the standard, accepted tool in virtually every form of analysis, and it is quite easy to compute: for each county, simply take the margin in one election and subtract it from the margin… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• California Primary Watchlist

  June 3, 2022

  INTRODUCTION Next Tuesday, there will be primary elections in seven states across the country. In an effort to keep our articles concise, Split Ticket has decided to devote a separate write-up to the Golden State alone. California is unique because it has more competitive House primaries than any other state… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Gubernatorial Ratings Update: 6/1

  June 1, 2022

  Michigan In a stunning turn of events, the top three candidates for the GOP gubernatorial nomination were kicked off the ballot for signature fraud, leaving Republicans with a splintered field of underwhelming nominees and an upset primary electorate. The chaos surrounding the fracas has deeply angered many Michigan Republicans, and… Read More

  Lakshya Jain