Month: March 2022
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The Driftless Area & South Korea
Introduction Lying at the heart of the American Upper Midwest, the Driftless Area has long been one of the nation’s most interesting political regions. For most of its existence, this expansive swath of territory reliably backed Republican Presidential candidates. Excepting victories by Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson, the GOP prevailed in most of […]
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A Special Election Trio
Introduction & Some History During any primary season, most attention is naturally devoted to the nominating contests that directly affect the November generals. But special elections, owing to their rarity and oddness, tend steal the spotlight when they occur a few times each year. Part of the attention stems from competitiveness, since specials usually produce […]
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The Battle for the Future of the Republican Party: What is Trump’s Role?
Introduction When New York businessman Donald Trump first announced his Presidential campaign in June 2015, few mainstream pundits took him seriously. Over the ensuing year, Trump shocked the political establishment by spearheading the successful defeat of over a dozen capable officeholders – each of whom was well-groomed to seek the Presidency. In so doing, Trump […]
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Double-Bunkings: Historical Lessons
Introduction Double-bunkings are among the most enjoyable contests that redistricting connoisseurs and political wonks get to cover. There are a three main factors that fuel the mysterious allure that is often associated with them. For one, double-bunkings are the only contests that pit two incumbents of the same party against each other. Sitting members are […]
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Is Electability Real?
One of the biggest flashpoints in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries was the notion of electability. Candidate after candidate was assessed by primary voters on the basis of who would be most likely to win the general election against Donald Trump, and entire campaigns floundered or surged around their answers to the question. Critics of […]
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Our 2018 House Wins-Above-Replacement Model, and the 2022 Implications
In today’s era of hyperpolarization, the single most accurate predictor of a district’s congressional vote is the presidential lean of the seat. As we previously analyzed here at Split Ticket, 97% of a district’s 2020 congressional vote could be explained simply by its presidential lean that year. With this in mind, it is likely that […]
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Retirement Musings: Part 2
Introduction Last year, one of Split Ticket’s first articles focused on House retirements. Since then, numerous incumbents (though mostly Democrats) have hopped on the departure train heading out of Washington. With filing deadlines fast approaching across the country, most candidates have already declared their intentions. This follow-up article will take a brief look at the […]